Israel’s presence in Syria: Withdrawal conditions depend on negotiations? Experts weigh in

The leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, stated in an interview with the British newspaper The Times that Israel's justification for entering Syrian territory was the presence of Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militants. However, he argued that this justification has now lost its validity. Al-Julani stressed that Israel, which has occupied areas in Syria’s buffer zone following the recent collapse of Assad's regime, must now withdraw from these territories.

Following the recent advance of Israeli armed forces across Syrian territory, Israeli media reported that they have occupied more than 370 square kilometres of Syrian land.

It seems that the new authorities, represented by the rebels, are dissatisfied with the measures Israel has taken to secure its safety amid the dramatic political changes in the neighbouring country. But what if Israel refuses to withdraw its troops from the newly occupied territories, citing security concerns? How will Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other allied groups respond? Could this lead to another conflict for Israel in such an unpredictable environment?

Israeli experts provided their insights on these questions for Caliber.Az.

As noted by a reserve officer of the Israel Defense Forces and military analyst Yigal Levin, it would probably be better to ask the leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other allied groups about how they will act in the situation.

"But not Israel. Israel has made it clear that it will focus on securing its own safety. This is precisely the purpose of the actions being taken. Recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Mount Hermon, the highest point in this buffer zone, and stated that Israel will remain there for as long as necessary to ensure its security. This is how our leadership communicates the various aspects of the IDF's presence in the buffer zone, on Syrian territory. As for how these groups will behave in this context, that question should be addressed to them," the expert explained.

At the same time, he emphasized the point that the war with Syria has never truly ended.

"Israel has been at war with this country since 1948, when Syria attacked us. Back then, the Assad regime did not exist, and neither was the Ba'ath Party in power. In other words, since Syria's attack in 1948, there has been no peace between our countries.

In 1974, the parties signed a ceasefire agreement and agreed to establish a demilitarized zone on the Golan Heights, which came under the control of UN peacekeepers. This introduced a ceasefire regime, which was periodically violated, primarily by Syrians, Iranians, and their proxies.

But it is important to understand clearly that Israel was forced to occupy strategic heights and territories not belonging to any sovereign state with which Israel had a peace treaty that was later violated. No, since 1948, there has been a state of war, and it has simply taken different forms: major wars like the Six-Day War, the Yom Kippur War, wars of attrition, terrorism, and so on. Therefore, what is happening now can be seen as a natural continuation of events that have been ongoing for over 70 years," Levin said.

For his part, a military expert and author of the military-analytical YouTube channel Sergei Auslander stated that the situation is as follows: on one hand, Julani is demonstrating a certain degree of politeness or deference towards the West and Israel. However, on the other hand, he has already begun to suggest that it may be time for Israel to withdraw from this zone, claiming that the Iranian threat is no longer present.

"He does not consider himself a threat. Israel, however, believes that it is still too early to draw conclusions about how the new Syrian authorities will behave. Therefore, Israel remains in this buffer zone," the analyst explained.

Overall, he suggests that Israel will likely continue to act based on its own considerations, while simultaneously engaging in negotiations with the Syrian rebels and the new authorities.

"We’ll see how things develop. The key issue here is, if Israel withdraws from this territory, from this buffer zone, and retreats to the 1974 line, what will Israel ask for in return? This is also an important point. We must remember that we are in the Middle East, and here, negotiations are necessary," Auslander clarified.