Pashinyan vs Garegin II and the struggle for a "New Armenia" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has instructed law enforcement agencies to closely monitor opposition politicians, lawyers, and human rights activists, particularly those supportive of former President Robert Kocharyan and businessman Samvel Karapetyan.

According to Armenian media reports, the authorities will also continue their attacks on the Armenian Church. Furthermore, there are plans to depose Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II on the 26th anniversary of his enthronement — October 27. Other Armenian media outlets have reported that criminal charges have already been filed against Garegin II under part 3 of Article 236 of the Armenian Penal Code (obstruction or coercion to participate in an assembly or refusal to participate using official powers).

The Investigative Committee of Armenia has opened a criminal case following the release of a recorded conversation in which it is alleged that Catholicos Garegin II coerced priests into participating in opposition rallies. In an audio recording between Archbishop  Nathan Hovhannisyan and former priest Aghan Ernjakyan, the latter claims that Garegin II forced him to take part in the 2023 protests.

Thus, Pashinyan continues his purge of the revanchist forces in Armenia — those groups opposing peace with Azerbaijan and refusing to recognise the outcome of the 44-day war.

Will the prime minister and his team be able to deal with these factions within the religious sphere and the political opposition before they take active measures ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections? If Pashinyan fails to control them, the peace process — and even the very prospect of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan — could be at risk.

Caliber.Az has turned to renowned experts to answer these questions.

Dr. Ilyas Huseynov, PhD in Political Science and Head of the Social Research Sector, believes that the arrests of various religious figures in Armenia are directly linked to next year’s elections.

“The call to remove Ktrich Nersisyan from his position as head of the Armenian Church and the detention of oligarch Samvel Karapetyan have opened a new chapter in Armenia’s socio-political life. We see that, in order to gather all evidence against Garegin II, lower-ranking religious figures within the church hierarchy are being held accountable. The goal is clear — to remove the current church leadership and thereby deprive it of its tools for influencing the masses.

Therefore, Pashinyan is seeking a new rationale against Garegin II. It must be noted that the fifth column and various geopolitical centres are also involved in this process,” the expert said.

According to him, on one hand, Pashinyan is confronting the church leadership, while on the other, he is seeking a secure path to re-election during a challenging period.

“Signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, reopening communications and transport routes, amending the constitution, and, of course, securing re-election — all of these are interconnected processes on which Pashinyan is counting for success.

This is why law enforcement, political institutions, the media, and civil society are all involved — together, they form Pashinyan’s administrative resource. We will see how it all unfolds.

It should be noted that, as the parliamentary elections approach, the level of tension will inevitably rise. In my view, these elections will be crucial for the future of Armenia and the Armenian people,” Huseynov emphasised.

Polish political scientist and Caucasus expert, Dr. Konrad Zasztowt of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the University of Warsaw, in turn, noted that, in his view, the political situation and overall atmosphere in Armenia are likely to become increasingly tense as the elections scheduled for mid-next year approach, along with a probable constitutional referendum.

“The government in Yerevan aims to adopt a new constitution that will remove the contentious provisions of the current document, as insisted upon by Azerbaijan, but it will also serve as a new beginning — a political doctrine of a ‘New Armenia,’ which Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan calls the programme of the ‘Real Armenia,’ in contrast to the ‘Historic Armenia.’ The latter shaped the first three decades of the country’s post-Soviet political life, marked by strong dependence on Russia and a continual conflict with Azerbaijan.

Naturally, there is a strong opposition camp in the country, including former President Kocharyan, some pro-Russian businessmen, and members of the Armenian Church, including Catholicos Garegin II himself. His support for the clergy’s participation in opposition rallies is sincere — it serves his political interests.

The question remains whether the government might resort to overly repressive measures against the opposition clergy, which, paradoxically, could strengthen their public support and make them even more influential opponents of Pashinyan,” the Caucasus expert warned.