"Russia's military potential will no longer return to pre-war level" Caliber.Az interview with political scientist Pavel Luzin

On August 24, Ukraine celebrated the 31st anniversary of its proclamation of independence. Exactly on this day, six months have passed since the day of the Russian invasion into the territory of this country. During this time thousands of people became victims of hostilities, dozens of thousands were wounded, and millions of Ukrainians became refugees. Since the beginning of the war, a number of Western countries have provided all kinds of assistance to Ukraine, including military assistance by supplying modern weapons.

As for the statistics on military losses, at the end of March, the Russian authorities last announced data, according to which the Russian army lost 1,351 men in Ukraine, and 3,825 servicemen were wounded. At the same time, Moscow stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost 23,367 people at that time. Meanwhile, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said on August 22 that nearly 9,000 Ukrainian servicemen had been killed in the war. On August 23, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that 45,550 Russian servicemen had been killed since the start of the war.

At the same time, the sanctions imposed by the collective West and the human losses due to the war with Ukraine, which are now compared to the number of deaths in other military conflicts of the twentieth century, are only obvious aspects of the war's impact on Russia and its military capabilities, which played a crucial role in the course of events.

In order to have an idea of at least an approximate military potential of the Russian Federation today, the Caliber.Az correspondent spoke to Pavel Luzin, a Russian political scientist and specialist in foreign and defence policy.

Luzin said that at the end of six months of the war, the Russian army is dealing with irreparable losses.

"The Russian military potential will no longer return to the level it was on the eve of February 24, 2022. This does not mean that Russia will lose its ability to fight at all, but it will not be able to hold out the intensity that we have seen in these six months for a long time. In addition, the problem of fragmentation of the military is acute and may lead to the fact that the Russian ground army will simply lose consistency and become more like irregular formations," says the political scientist.

At the same time, speaking about the effectiveness of weapons provided to Ukraine, Luzin pointed out that it is impossible to single out one type of weapon, which would be a kind of wand-saver for Ukraine.

"Everything is important as a whole and within the system. Of course, bombardment and rocket artillery are very important, but they would not be effective without target reconnaissance, which gives access to commercial remote sensing satellites and drones. It is related to everything, including spare parts for Ukrainian planes and helicopters and the supply of the planes and helicopters themselves. The provision of armored vehicles is also very important," says the expert.

When asked to what extent the events of the Second Karabakh War contributed to the popularization of Bayraktar UAVs, the interlocutor of the website noted that for Russia the factor of Bayraktars had become obvious even before the 44-day war in Karabakh.

"The Bayraktars successfully operated in Syria and Libya. It shocked the Russian military. The war in Karabakh only proved that they are very effective weapons in skillful hands. However, Russia is not yet capable of producing anything of the kind, because the production of Bayraktar is only possible under conditions of private enterprise and market economy, which Russia simply does not have," Luzin concluded.