Russian analyst questions Armenia's military capabilities as losing side in conflict Conversation with Stanislav Tarasov

Stanislav Tarasov, a Russian political scientist and expert on the Middle East and the Caucasus, talked to Caliber.Az about the ambivalent political line of Armenia's current leadership.

- Mr Tarasov, how would you comment on the recent statement made by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding the need to adopt a new Constitution? What is behind this initiative?

- I don't understand what Pashinyan is trying to achieve. It seems that he cannot find anything worthy of a statesman to do. Many problems in Armenia need to be solved urgently, and getting involved in these academic exercises on an abstract level, which are incapable of affecting the real lives of Armenians, is utter nonsense and indicates a spiritual and intellectual crisis.

- Let's take a step forward and assume that the new constitution has already been adopted. Do you assume that the preamble, which contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan, will be removed from it?

- It makes no difference.

- For whom?

- I want to say that the constitution can be changed, but it is not so important, because if the sides did not focus on writing, the world would be different already.

- So, regardless of the changes in the Constitution, Armenia will continue to delay the signing of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan?

- What is stopping Armenia from signing a peace agreement now? Especially now that Pashinyan has recognised the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in Prague. Everything else is a matter of details. And the Armenian side should understand that. The peace treaty is on the table, so sign it. And then let's talk about demarcating the borders, determining what is called where, which river is which, and whether all this is violating the borders. Go further to the issue of the Zangezur corridor, any issue, but stop the state of war. Instead, they are talking about some "arms control treaty". I have the feeling that Pashinyan's entourage has never learned anything.

- Earlier you said that Pashinyan's delay in the settlement with Azerbaijan was a result of the West's orders. Do you still believe that?

- I can admit that the West is still ruling Armenia, but the important thing is that Armenians are happy. And I don't see that they are really happy. That's why there is every reason to believe that the fate of Armenians and the Armenian state is going to be decided when Karabakh passes to Azerbaijan. Armenia may disappear completely from the map of the region. This is the reality, unlike the Armenian dreams of a "great Armenia".

- Armenia does not dare to leave Russia's "warm wing", but at the same time, it does not stop blackmailing Moscow with statements about withdrawal from the CSTO. What is Moscow waiting for so patiently?

- Those who want to leave will leave. In other words, if you really want to leave, then finally leave. Why all these empty slogans "down with the CSTO", "down with the Russian base in Gyumri" or "the French will help us"? Well, if that's the case, then go to them. Who are you scaring? The other thing is that the situation is such that if the Armenians want to survive, the first state language in Armenia is going to be Russian. If they want to disappear historically from the political map, the state language will be French.

- It is not by chance that France has been betting on Armenia to force its way into our region, is it?

- France itself will be in a state of collapse. What chance does it stand? Look at what is happening in Europe.

- The final documents of the CSTO, with which Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov travelled to Yerevan, have still not been signed by Armenia. Will Moscow wait for Pashinyan?

- I don't know. It is difficult to say how the leadership of this country will behave.

- You probably know that the Armenian media are spreading information that Azerbaijan is about to attack Armenia. I would like to hear your arguments on this issue.

-Yes, the Armenian media writes that Azerbaijan allegedly wants to invade Armenia. I would advise Armenians to listen to Ilham Aliyev's statement that "Azerbaijan has achieved its historical goal". Aliyev is calm because he has in fact achieved the goal, but it is not clear what the Armenians want.

- Will the parties nevertheless sign a peace agreement?

- I think Azerbaijan will do its best to turn its victory in the Second Karabakh War into a peace treaty. However, it is still difficult to give a clear timeframe for the signing of this document.

- Russia and Armenia are working on an agreement on military-technical cooperation. Does it create conditions for the resumption of Russian military supplies to Armenia?

- Why do the Armenians need weapons? Can they fight? Why supply weapons to those who are losing everything? They know how to sell watermelons. Let them do what they know. We can't make cars, but we buy them, and Armenians can't fight, but they attend NATO courses. We should learn from those who win, but they go to those who lose. That's why they lose everything.