Trump's South Caucasus strategy: Will pragmatism overcome ideology in US policy? Tsukerman and Chernov on Caliber.Az

Amid heated discussions surrounding the United States’ less-than-successful negotiations with Ukraine, political analysts have begun speculating on the possible course of Donald Trump’s policy towards the South Caucasus. With Trump’s team currently focused on freezing the conflict in Ukraine and mediating negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, the region does not seem to be an immediate priority. However, in the long run, Washington cannot afford to overlook this strategically significant area where global powers’ interests converge.

Reassessing U.S. strategy in the South Caucasus

Under Trump, experts anticipate a shift in Washington’s approach to the South Caucasus, potentially moving away from President Joe Biden’s policies. Analysts suggest that Biden’s pro-Armenian stance may be reconsidered in favour of closer ties with Azerbaijan. Likewise, U.S.-Georgia relations, which have previously been marked by pressure, may take a more balanced turn under the new administration.

How will the U.S. position in the South Caucasus change under the new administration?" Caliber.Az correspondent reached out to foreign experts to answer this question.

American geopolitical and security analyst Irina Tsukerman, who serves as the editor-in-chief of The Washington Outsider, notes that U.S.-Georgia relations soured when Tbilisi slowed its European integration process, triggering large-scale protests. As a result, the United States suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, citing “a departure from democratic principles and increasing Russian influence.”

“The Trump administration is likely to adopt a more pragmatic stance and establish dialogue with the Georgian government,” Tsukerman explains. However, she cautions that this could inadvertently strengthen Moscow's influence in the country. Overall, Washington's policy in the South Caucasus is being reassessed, with a focus on supporting democratic institutions, promoting peace, and countering Russian and Chinese influence.

Uncertain future for US-Armenia relations

One of the more telling signs of this shift came in the final days of Biden’s tenure, when the Strategic Partnership Commission Charter was signed between Armenia and US. According to analysts, Yerevan sought to secure the agreement before Trump assumed office. However, the implementation of this charter has noticeably slowed under the new administration, raising concerns in Armenia about the future of bilateral relations.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to the United States in February 2025 only reinforced these concerns. While Pashinyan met with Vice President J.D. Vance, he was unable to secure an audience with President Trump, a move that some analysts interpreted as a sign of the administration’s cautious approach towards Armenia.

“The Trump administration is prioritising domestic affairs and a select number of key international initiatives,” Tsukerman notes. She adds that a shortage of confirmed senior diplomats and attempts to dismiss federal employees, including State Department officials, have further contributed to the slowdown in foreign policy activity.

Additionally, there are indications that Trump may be willing to recalibrate relations with Russia and Iran, potentially at Armenia’s expense. As Tsukerman explains, “While the Charter remains a formal document, its practical implementation will depend on Washington’s evolving foreign policy priorities.”

New approaches to Georgia and Azerbaijan

Alexey Chernov, chief expert at the Centre for Analytical Forecasting, believes that Trump’s policy in the South Caucasus will differ significantly from Biden’s. While Trump’s foreign policy team is currently focused on the conflict in Ukraine and a ceasefire in Gaza, the administration is expected to approach the region cautiously, avoiding abrupt changes to the balance of relations established under Biden.

Chernov highlights the sharp contrast between the two leaders’ ideological approaches, predicting that the Biden-era policies of “punishing Georgia” and lobbying for closer ties with Armenia will likely be re-evaluated. Given Trump’s scepticism towards EU-led initiatives, he may seek a more cooperative relationship with Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party.

“The stringent measures imposed by Brussels and Washington have failed to yield tangible results,” Chernov points out. “Despite external pressure, Georgia has not altered its foreign policy and, if anything, has strengthened its international position.”

As for Armenia, Chernov suggests that Trump’s administration may take a more pragmatic approach, avoiding overt support for Yerevan. “The Armenian diaspora overwhelmingly supported Biden,” he notes, adding that Trump’s team may not be inclined to prioritise relations with a country whose leadership has historically aligned itself with the Democrats.

Meanwhile, unexpected moves regarding Azerbaijan may be on the horizon. Chernov observes that Trump has demonstrated respect for strong leaders and remained neutral during the 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel—a key U.S. ally—adds another layer to Washington’s foreign policy calculations.

“A large-scale cooperation plan involving the U.S., Israel, and Azerbaijan is already being actively discussed in some foreign policy circles,” Chernov reveals. “Energy collaboration and Azerbaijan’s geopolitical position make Baku a particularly valuable partner, given that it shares borders with both Iran and Russia while maintaining a clear foreign policy line.”

Conclusion: A pragmatic shift ahead?

While the South Caucasus is not currently a priority for the Trump administration, there are clear indications that a strategic shift is underway. Trump’s foreign policy is likely to prioritise pragmatism over ideology, with a reassessment of relations with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

As Tsukerman and Chernov suggest, the Biden-era emphasis on Armenia may give way to a more neutral stance, while Georgia may experience a shift towards balanced dialogue. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, could see a deepening of ties with Washington due to its strategic geopolitical position and close relations with Israel.

Ultimately, the trajectory of U.S. engagement in the South Caucasus will depend on the broader foreign policy objectives of the Trump administration. However, one thing remains clear: change is on the horizon.