Will CSTO countries back Russia's war against Ukraine? Karbalevich, Munbayev, Osmonbetov on Caliber.Az

The noose around the majority of CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) member states, which appear to have remained neutral in Russian policy in Ukraine to date - has gradually tightened. In any case, this is clearly indicated by another harsh statement made by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov in Minsk.

According to Lukashenko, the countries included in this military bloc should determine their position on the war against Ukraine. "If someone thinks that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not our conflict, that we will sit quietly somewhere, nothing will happen," Lukashenko said.

And then the Belarus president outlined prospects for the CSTO member states: "The time will come, it's not far away, literally tomorrow, it will demand to be determined, to take a certain position. I'm not saying it's to the detriment of national interests. But we will have to find compromises."

It should be noted that this is not the first statement by Lukashenko in support of Russia in its confrontation with Ukraine addressed to the countries of this bloc. It is enough to recall his statement that the CSTO disappearance could turn into a catastrophe for the Central Asian states. Back in December 2022, speaking to his counterparts – the leaders of the CSTO member states, Alexander Lukashenko warned that many members of the bloc would be in a situation of the deepest political crisis if the organisation ceased to exist. He even cited as an example the bloody riots in Kazakhstan in January last year, all kinds of "revolutions" in Kyrgyzstan, and instability on the Tajik-Kyrgyz and Uzbek-Kyrgyz borders.

And in October 2022, the Belarus president spoke about the need to look for ways out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, emphasising that Putin had repeatedly offered options. In an interview with the American television company NBC, Lukashenko desperately stated that 50 states are actually fighting against Russia on the territory of Ukraine today and that therefore it is necessary to look for ways out of the situation.

"And I must tell you, unlike you Westerners, President Putin has offered options more than once. It's just that, apparently, they don't want to listen to him and hear him at the moment. But it should have been. This is also our position," Lukashenko stressed, adding that no weapons, including American ones, will change the situation at the front.

And last November, at the plenary session of the CSTO Collective Security Council in Yerevan, the Belarus leader unilaterally announced that the CSTO's fate depends on the success of the special operation in Ukraine.

"If Russia wins, the CSTO will live. If it does not win, the CSTO will not exist," Lukashenko said, calling for increasing the readiness of the bloc's troops and strengthening the member countries' military-technical cooperation. This was a very alarming signal for virtually all the CSTO countries, who realised that sooner or later they would all be involved in Russia's war with Ukraine.

By the way, the Belarus leader did not ignore Armenia's refusal to sign the declaration of the Collective Security Council, briefly but harshly warning that it was "not in its interests".

"We will somehow solidify with Russia, believe me, you need it more than we do. If anything happens, you will be left alone with your problems," Lukashenko predicted to the Armenian prime minister, clearly outlining the prospect that is not rosy for the country in case Yerevan turns to the West.

Competent experts spoke with Caliber.Az about what is behind the Belarus president's declarations and how they threaten the CSTO member countries.

According to Belarus political scientist Valeriy Karbalevich, Belarus is the only country in the CSTO that supports Russia's position in the conflict with Ukraine and is in one bundle with Moscow. But this is a necessary link for Minsk since Lukashenko has no other way out to keep his power, the expert admits.

"As for Lukashenko's statements, he expressed what Putin does not dare to talk about. Russia's position is that all the countries of the bloc need to unite against the West, that is, against a common enemy. This is the whole point of the statements that Lukashenko voiced. However, as the disagreements in the CSTO intensify, Moscow's leading role in the post-Soviet space is weakened due to the war in Ukraine. Russia's isolation is increasing, therefore, the expectation that the CSTO will unite on an anti-Western platform and support Russia and Belarus is minimised. This accordingly causes discontent in Minsk and Moscow.

Concerning the Central Asian countries, on which Russia and Belarus rely heavily, I do not think any sanctions will be imposed if they refuse to support Russian policy in this conflict. As a result, aside from Moscow's appeals through Lukashenko, I don't believe anything threatens these countries. On the other hand, I do not believe that the CSTO will collapse; rather, I believe that it will weaken: it will acquire formal functions, and real interaction will fade into the background. The CSTO will gradually move towards the CIS," said Valeriy Karbalevich.

And according to Kazakh scientist, Professor Nurlan Munbayev, a neutral position is most acceptable for Kazakhstan within the framework of the CSTO on the issue of Russia's war in Ukraine.

"Kazakhstan, as a peace-loving state in any critical situation, usually chooses a diplomatic way to resolve the problem, which also applies to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, it is most likely that Kazakhstan can offer its mediation efforts between Ukraine and Russia and provide its territory for negotiations. As for the risks that are possible in the event of Astana's complete refusal to support Russian policy, I think that most likely they may be of an economic nature and relate to dumping policy. For example, Russia may impose an embargo on the transit of Kazakh oil through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk-Batumi pipeline. We are talking about the export oil from the production of Chevron, a powerful US investor in the largest field in the world. Although it is Russia that annually receives a good royalty for the transit of Kazakh export oil through its territory. But I would not consider it accidental that back in March 2022, the Kazakh pipeline laid along the bottom of the Black Sea was damaged. This happened just after Kazakhstan refused to support the Russian invasion and the annexation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to the Russian Federation," Nurlan Munbayev said.

The next interlocutor of the agency, a Kyrgyz expert on international relations, Edil Osmonbetov, suggested that Bishkek would most likely adhere to a neutral position in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

"Relations between the CSTO and Kyrgyzstan will continue, none of the member countries of this organisation will leave its membership. In 2022, when Tajikistan's military aggression against Kyrgyzstan took place, our leadership demanded that the CSTO amend the charter of this military bloc since the CSTO is a defensive alliance that provides for a collective agreement against external threats. In this regard, Kyrgyzstan even abandoned the CSTO military exercises that were scheduled for last fall, so we hope that the CSTO is working on these changes, and this year it will become clear how these adjustments correspond to our country's interests. As for Lukashenko's statements, I would not attach extreme importance to this," Osmonbetov summed up.

Thus, it is obvious that the chances of the Russian Federation and Belarus to receive support in the Ukrainian conflict from the rest of the CSTO member states are practically zero.