"Armenia losing out either way" Centre for Middle Eastern Studies Director’s opinion for Caliber.Az

Yerevan is again tossing about, like a car that had run off the road. The Armenian Armed Forces are committing armed provocations, while Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan are making statements that fundamentally misrepresent the essence of the provisions of the trilateral statement dated November 10, 2020. That is, the Armenian side continues putting forward demands on Baku, while not fulfilling any obligations.

Having recently unilaterally refused a meeting with the Azerbaijani side in Brussels and called it "ineffective", Yerevan began to scare the world with "the upcoming genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Armenians of Karabakh". At the same time, it is committing provocative operations on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border, moving away from the peace negotiations.

In early March, as a result of armed sabotage, the Armenian military, whom the Armenian side tried to pass off as "representatives of the passport office from Khankandi", killed two Azerbaijani servicemen, then the Armenians have recently made efforts to spoil the Novruz holiday, which is a favourite holiday of all Azerbaijanis, a symbol of spring, renewal, and good deeds, by shooting at the border and wounding our border guard.

Moreover, Yerevan is testing the patience of not only Baku, forgetting that any patience is not unlimited.

Entangled in the intricacies of its "strategic" thought, Yerevan pushes Moscow away accusing it of betraying allied obligations and hastily develops a new political adventure. In defiance of Russia, it deploys an EU paramilitary mission under French banners on the Armenian territory.

Pashinyan overestimates his diplomatic acumen. France’s rude attempt to wedge in the South Caucasus in any way is not connected with the protection of Armenian interests.

Meanwhile, both European and Russian military personnel are now in Armenia, which gives political analysts a lot of opportunities for thought – whether the two missions can severely clash.

So, first of all, the security of Armenia itself is under threat and the chances that the EU will unlikely sacrifice everything for the sake of Yerevan. Energy support from Azerbaijan is much more important for Brussels now, because the security of the entire Europe is at stake.

Director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos said in an interview with Caliber.Az that Armenia greatly delays the peace dialogue.

“Armenia fails to gain an advantage in the implementation of its “strategy of games”, which is obvious, and it is trying at all costs to delay the implementation of obligations upon the 2020 trilateral statement. However, Yerevan loses in any case, so the only way out is to fully delay everything,” the Ukrainian political analyst said.

He noted that Armenia hopes that this way it will be possible to reach a certain new stage when it will be possible to change the rules of the game. The second important task for Armenia now is the search for new resources, and new allies, that is, the emergence of new players who can improve the situation in favour of Armenia.

“It is quite obvious that the Armenians consider France first of all as such a player, expressing hope that it will be able to change something and play on their side. They also consider Iran in this role,” the expert added.

He said that another problem is that Russia, which has been a key player for Armenia for a long time and without which it could not act independently, remains a decisive factor.

“Pashinyan’s actions are an attempt to quickly orient and escape from Moscow’s tutelage for Russia’s current weakening would minimally affect Yerevan’s position. In general, he wants to wash his hands of this situation as soon as possible. As for the peace talks, he is trying to push them back as much as possible, relying on luck and the patronage of heaven and the West. Of course, the latter is by no means a panacea for Yerevan,” the Ukrainian political analyst said.