"Aggravation of situation in Karabakh is tantamount to suicide for Armenia" Russian experts for Caliber.Az

On August 3, the illegal Armenian armed formations from the territory of Azerbaijan, where the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is temporarily deployed, intensively fired on the positions of the Azerbaijani Army in the Lachin direction. Private Anar Kazimov was killed by a bullet wound. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces launched a retaliatory operation against Armenian terrorist groups in the temporary responsibility zone of the RPC.

The editorial office of Caliber.Az asked the director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary State Development Dmitry Solonnikov and Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin to comment on the provocations of the Armenian side.

Solonnikov is convinced that the worsening of the situation in Karabakh was provoked by the actions of the Armenian side.

"Armenia does not fulfill a number of agreements, in particular on border demarcation, unblocking of Zangazur corridor, withdrawal of illegal armed units from the territory of Azerbaijan. In the current difficult international situation, it is more than obvious that the Armenian authorities are trying, as they say, to fish in troubled waters. Indeed, the world is becoming more and more complicated, and the tensions are growing at different points - in the area of China-Taiwan contact, in Serbia and Kosovo, and in the South Caucasus, it is Armenia that is trying to create a point of tension, counting on the fact that, maybe, something will gain somewhere. On the other hand, if the U.S. allies are trying to organize provocations in different parts of the world, focusing on NATO and the European Union, why shouldn't the Armenian diaspora try to encourage the Armenian leadership to do the same? Of course, that is exactly what it is trying to do.

Russia is certainly against unleashing a full-fledged new war in Karabakh, but fully supports the agreements reached at the end of the 44-day war in November 2020. Without any doubt, the Armenian armed formations must be withdrawn from the Azerbaijani territories, the Zangazur corridor must be unblocked, and the demarcation of the border must be carried out. In this situation, Russia supports the actions of Azerbaijan, and we see how calmly Russian officials treat Baku's current actions. Of course, the loss of life is a great tragedy; we all mourn the deaths of servicemen defending their country with weapons in their hands. Unfortunately, it still happens to this day. At this stage, it is very important that this war does not turn into a global one. If Azerbaijan can now solve the issues raised by the parties earlier, it means Baku will give a worthy answer to all the provocations organized by the Armenian side," Solonnikov said.

In his turn, Vladislav Shurygin believes that the aggravation of the situation in Karabakh is tantamount to suicide for Armenia. In Shurygin's opinion, the hatred between the two peoples is so strong that even the signed agreements do not ease the tension in the region. As a consequence, amid the provocation in Karabakh, the entire system of regional security is subject to split.

"It takes at least a few generations for this hatred to subside. If any of the sides express their hatred by firing shots and giving up on the agreements reached, it is logical that it will receive a similar reaction in response. I am not ready now to identify the starting point, i.e. who exactly is to blame for the current escalation of tension in Karabakh, but it is obvious that such action may lead to deplorable results for the Armenian side. Azerbaijan obviously outnumbers Armenia militarily by several orders of magnitude, so any provocation from its side (if it was from the Armenian side) is a crime against its own state.

For Azerbaijan, it is important to tell itself to stop in time, because in case of further escalation of the conflict, the war can turn into an endless and sluggish bloody mess. The terrain is suitable for this purpose. So, in my opinion, the mediators need to remind the sides of the trilateral statement reached in 2020 in time to stop the current outbreak of confrontation, which is not the first and probably not the last. As I said, for Armenia any provocations are fraught with serious military consequences, while escalation will inevitably end in the deaths of servicemen from both sides. One of them must be strong and wise in this case. I personally want it to be the Azerbaijani side," Shurygin wished.

Commenting on the information of Armenian sources about the alleged relocation of Iranian troops to the Azerbaijani border, the expert assumed that Armenia hardly counts on Iran's help. According to Shurygin, Armenia understands that Iran will not interfere in this situation, because it is not in its interests, especially if we are talking about an armed conflict.

"I believe this information is rather designed for Armenia's internal public. Tehran has no plans to get involved in this war, let alone plunge into it. Armenia is dragging out the issue of border demarcation and delimitation and, in general, the unblocking of transport communications (including the Zangazur corridor), as the only goal is to drag out the negotiation process as long as possible and thus not to reach the final outcome of the lost war. We need to understand that there is a split in society inside Armenia, and it is stimulated by the government and through political activists, including those in the military. Some understand that it is necessary to compromise with Azerbaijan, while others want to return to the 1990s when Armenia was "great and invincible". And this revanchism has a strong effect on the implementation of those decisions that were made two years ago. However, I do not think that a large-scale war can break out in Karabakh again. First of all, as I said, the military potential of Armenia is not comparable to that of Azerbaijan, and secondly, Yerevan perfectly understands that Russia has no time for it, it is fully occupied with Ukraine. Therefore, if the source of the conflict is Armenia, the Russian Federation will irritably allow Azerbaijan to fulfill its tasks. At the same time, we should understand that Russian peacekeepers stay in Karabakh, fulfill their tasks, and hopefully, they will not give a reason to start a new war, which will definitely be a disaster for Armenia," Shurygin summed up.