Anti-peace alliance, or Brussels as Armenia’s new "big brother" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

In his speech at the XII Global Baku Forum, President Ilham Aliyev clearly identified the main allies of Armenia who are obstructing peace in the South Caucasus. According to the president, Brussels has become Armenia’s "big brother."

"The European Peace Facility is providing millions of dollars to Armenia to weaponize it. Yes, they say they provide this money for non-lethal military installations. But first, who can check this? And second, you give them 10 million, and then another 10 million is planned to be given. So, that actually allows Armenia to save money to buy weapons. Not only France is supplying deadly weapons. Why are they doing it? For what are they preparing? If they want peace, there is no need for that. Many times we have raised this issue with Armenian representatives and with their new bosses in Brussels. Because now they have changed the big brother; and today it's Brussels. Until President Trump won, it was the State Department, it was USAID. It was corrupt American politicians like Menendez, who are now facing serious problems. But Menendez should not be the last one. As they say, one swallow does not make a summer. There are many more who put Armenian money in their pockets. I can name them. Their names are known: Mr. Adam Schiff, Mr. Frank Pallone, Madam Nancy Pelosi, and many others," the president emphasized.

The head of state also noted that the European monitoring mission is essentially an EU intelligence operation.

"The so-called European monitoring mission, which is actually a reconnaissance mission of the European Union, is spying day and night on our border, looking just for places where they can penetrate. And we have enough intelligence information on this so-called monitoring mission," the president added.

When will Europe finally change its openly anti-Azerbaijani policy? With this question, a Caliber.Az correspondent sought insights from international experts.

The Chairman of the Eurasian Society of Germany, German political analyst Alexander Rahr, believes that on one hand, Armenian lobbyists will face difficulties because Trump intends to withdraw funding allocated to various NGOs for conducting so-called "orange revolutions," primarily in the post-Soviet space.

"America is pulling out of the game, but Germany and France now want to reshape the EU, strengthening a common European defense policy," the political analyst noted.

On the other hand, these very countries will continue to stir unrest in the South Caucasus, destabilizing the region and supporting—by any means necessary—countries, primarily Armenia, that seek to break free from Russian influence and align themselves with the West. Consequently, the EU’s pro-Armenian policy will persist, with Berlin, rather than Paris, becoming its main financial backer.

"This policy is aimed at pulling neighboring post-Soviet countries out of Russia’s sphere of influence and alliance. The bulk of the funding for this will come from Germany," Rahr emphasized.

Belarusian political scientist Sergey Tomits believes that there is a chance for Europe to rethink its policy in the South Caucasus—and it is Donald Trump who could reshape the current reality.

"Unfortunately, at this moment, Europe is incapable of reassessing its stance on long-standing issues, including its negative attitude toward Baku and its clear support for Armenia—the pro-Armenian sentiment within the EU is simply too strong. In this regard, President Ilham Aliyev is absolutely right in his assessment. Sadly, this position has been shaped by Biden’s regressive policies, coupled with active support for Armenia. Neutrality has disappeared, giving way to pro-Armenian lobbying by Macron and an obscure figure like German Foreign Minister Baerbock. But they are merely temporary players on the chessboard. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s policies will soon become the defining force for Europe, at least for the next few years, shaping new, constructive perspectives.

The policy of liberals, including European reactionaries who support separatism and political chauvinism in post-Soviet countries, will be firmly suppressed and even removed from the chessboard altogether. And it’s not just about the fact that the U.S. is reconsidering its main perceived threat—until recently, Moscow—which means it will no longer seek to expand its influence in the post-Soviet space. The key point is that Washington aims to make its own policies, as well as those of its allies, as rational as possible, focusing on supporting and strengthening ties with transit states and economic donors rather than engaging in political games.

In this regard, Azerbaijan stands out as the central political force in the South Caucasus, a key ally of Türkiye and other strategically important countries for the U.S.—not Armenia, whose political doctrine, to put it mildly, is far from impeccable," Tomits emphasized.