"Armenia is obsessed with revenge and preparing for war with Azerbaijan" Expert insights

Armenia is ready to arm itself even with second-hand military equipment passed down from its "sisters." According to Greek media reports, anti-aircraft missile systems such as the S-300, along with two other types of Russian-made weapons (presumably including the Tor air defence system), which were previously used by Greece for air defence, are planned to be transferred to Armenia. In exchange, Israel-made systems will replace them.

Against the backdrop of the sluggish ongoing negotiations, Armenia’s ongoing militarization cannot be ignored. Is Armenia focused on peaceful dialogue, or on escalation? This question was addressed by Caliber.Az's correspondent to foreign experts.

According to Belarusian military expert and retired Colonel Leonid Spatkai, the S-300 systems, which were destroyed by Azerbaijani drones in the early days of the 44-day war, are a familiar and well-known type of weapon for Armenian soldiers. Therefore, it is much easier to restore old skills than to re-train for entirely new systems or to learn advanced Western technologies.

"As for the condition of the Greek S-300s and how they were used by the Greeks, I cannot say for certain. However, weapons that are intended for transfer to another country typically undergo, if not full modernization, then at least necessary repairs. Of course, this weapon is far from new, and it is being handed over to Armenia as part of the principle 'one man's trash is another man's treasure,' while the Greeks themselves intend to replace it with much more advanced and high-tech armament. They will sell this air defence system to Armenia at a very symbolic price. This is much more beneficial for Greece than dealing with its disposal. After all, Athens needs to get rid of outdated, obsolete military complexes, both morally and technically."

The second question is how the S-300 systems will coexist with the Indian and French weapons. Clearly, there is a systemic mismatch, and it will likely play out as the old saying goes: a bolt and nut of the same size, but the threads don't match because the standards are different. So, in my view, this equipment will not bring significant benefits to the Armenian armed forces, and it is more likely to cause problems.

In general, looking at how actively Armenia is arming itself and analyzing the statements of Armenian politicians, one can draw a rather obvious conclusion – regardless of what is being said in the political arena, Armenia is obsessed with revenge and is preparing for war with Azerbaijan. While the acquired weapons are not yet enough to start a war with Azerbaijan right now, the preparations for it are clearly underway," said Spatkai.

According to Russian political analyst Alexander Ryabtsov, Armenia is apparently only pretending to seek common ground in the process of signing a peace treaty, but in reality, it is just a facade.

"We saw a new round of Armenian intrigue on the eve and during COP29, when Yerevan engaged in a real bargaining process, using the possibility of its participation in the international summit to extract various concessions. If Pashinyan and his team genuinely wanted a specific result, the proposals would have been constructive, not just empty talks. A characteristic feature is how quickly Pashinyan raises one topic and then closes the previous one as if it never existed, even though just recently Pashinyan was indignantly talking about the issue. This kind of political theatre only indicates that Armenia takes its commitments very lightly. At the same time, Armenia is clearly moving towards increasing its military arsenal, which clearly indicates that Pashinyan is preparing for a new military conflict with Azerbaijan," said Ryabtsov.