Armenian officials express hope for peace talks with Azerbaijan Pashinyan's optimism signals potential progress

Ahead of the upcoming meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to be held on May 10 in Almaty, the Armenian government is voicing rather optimistic statements in the context of normalisation of relations with Azerbaijan. In particular, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan, responding to journalists' question about the main disagreement between the sides, said that Yerevan has no fundamental disagreements with Baku.

"There are no principal disagreements, we go point by point one by one, that is, we reach these points, we discuss, this is done on the basis of international principles and one by one ... It is very important not to give an opportunity for double interpretation...," Simonyan said, adding that the delimitation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia should be finalized very quickly.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan spoke in a similarly positive vein at a press conference with his Hungarian counterpart Péter Szijjártó, expressing hope that "the talks will be a step forward towards a settlement".

"We believe that during the talks in Almaty there will be an opportunity to discuss our commitments with Azerbaijan and fix them in writing, both sides will adhere to their commitments and the working groups will continue discussing details of issues important for Armenia and Azerbaijan," Mirzoyan said, adding that bilateral commissions continue discussing details of border delimitation.

At the same time, the Armenian minister revealed some details of the upcoming talks, saying that Yerevan intends to discuss with Baku in Almaty the issue of mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of the two countries, as well as the opening of transport infrastructure and trade routes in the region. "We would like to release transportation infrastructure. There is no general agreement yet, but if there is one, Armenia's intention is to open roads and trade routes without any restrictions," the FM said, assuring that Armenia is ready to continue constructive negotiations aimed at ending the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan and mutually recognizing the territorial integrity of the two countries.

"I want to reiterate Armenia's commitment to the peace agenda. We are negotiating sincerely, constructively and with goodwill, and we are confident that the establishment of final peace is indeed in the interests of both countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and both peoples. I also want to express cautious optimism about the upcoming negotiations," Mirzoyan said.

The positive rhetoric of the Armenian authorities appeared after Baku and Yerevan came to an agreement on the return of four villages of Gazakh district by Armenia to Azerbaijan for the first time during the negotiations, which in turn contributed to the beginning of border demarcation.

Prior to that, Yerevan officials regularly and at different levels voiced provocative statements against Baku. To recall, last December, in a conversation with journalists, the Armenian speaker groundlessly accused Azerbaijan of artificially delaying the signing of the peace treaty and allegedly inciting hatred against Armenians. This February, the Armenian Foreign Minister accused Azerbaijan of territorial claims during his speech at the 55th session of the UN Human Rights Council.

And now the Armenian officialdom almost in unison has started talking about peace with Azerbaijan. It should not be forgotten that the statements of the Armenian authorities about readiness for peace with Azerbaijan, which were also voiced during the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia, were primarily designed to attract the attention of the international community. And this tactic of Yerevan, most likely, has not changed today. This is, first of all. Secondly, the changed balance of forces in the region in favor of Azerbaijan actually left Armenia no serious room for maneuver to somehow obstruct Baku's peace agenda, which the current leadership of Armenia understands perfectly well. Therefore, there is nothing left for Nikol Pashinyan but to promote Baku's peace agenda. Unlike the previous Armenian authorities, most likely, the Armenian prime minister has no illusions about the "return" of Karabakh and realizes the futility of this "idea".

On the other hand, peace with Baku is in Armenia's own economic interests, as it will allow the country to join serious regional and international logistics projects, from which Armenia has been isolated due to the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. A trade and economic breakthrough is essentially necessary for Armenia also because the country has set a course towards the West and plans to leave the orbit of Russia's influence. And, most likely, at this stage it is these factors that the Armenian prime minister is guided by. Against the backdrop of protests in the country fueled by the Armenian Apostolic Church and the opposition, as well as threats that create a serious ground for internal political upheavals up to a coup, Nikol Pashinyan at a recent press conference set clear accents on the issue of border demarcation, unequivocally stating that the suspension of this process will lead to war.

"The further the process of delimitation goes, the more the war is deprived of foundation, deprived of logic and becomes illegitimate. For the first time in Armenia's history, we are creating security guarantees by our sovereign decisions, with our own hands. Sovereignty is when you can face your problems and find sovereign solutions. We don't want to steer processes in the direction of the possibility of war. We want to steer processes in the direction of the impossibility of war. We can stop the delimitation process today. And then what happens? Then there will be one simple thing - war," the Armenian prime minister said, stating that he will not fulfill the opposition's demands and will not stop the process of delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan.

Moreover, the Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized that he hopes for progress following the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers’ upcoming meeting in Almaty. Thus, the statements of Pashinyan and his team suggest that at this stage Yerevan's policy priority is to achieve peace with Azerbaijan, which in turn is welcomed by Baku. In this regard, it is appropriate to recall the statements by President Ilham Aliyev, voiced by him this March at the opening ceremony of the 11th Global Baku Forum under the theme "Fixing the Fractured World", that "now Azerbaijan is closer to peace with Armenia than ever before".

"Never in the history of independence of the South Caucasus has peace been as close as it is today. And this is the result of the Second Karabakh War," President Aliyev emphasized.

Whether the sides will be able to advance Baku's peace agenda one step further will show the outcome of the negotiations between Bayramov and Mirzoyan, while the meeting in Almaty may in many ways shed light on the key question: is Yerevan ready to go to the end without deviating from Baku's peace agenda?