Balancing US push and Israel's moves: Is peace in Middle East within reach? Experts weigh in on possible scenarios

US President Joe Biden is pushing for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, aiming to secure the release of hostages by the week's end. Simultaneously, US efforts will focus on preventing Iran and Hezbollah from launching attacks on Israel, which could derail peace initiatives in Gaza.

"I'm optimistic. There are still a couple of issues to be resolved. I think we have a chance," Biden told reporters.

But what drives Biden’s resolve to achieve tangible results in the Middle East conflict, especially as he’s not seeking another term and has little to gain politically? Is this a move for his possible successor, Kamala Harris? Moreover, with the current tensions between Israel and its adversaries, do these efforts stand any real chance of success?

Prominent regional experts shared their insights with Caliber.Az, weighing in on these crucial developments.

Israeli military expert David Gendelman believes the Biden administration is keen on securing a truce in Gaza due to the war's unpopularity among Democratic voters, particularly the party's far-left wing, which could hinder Kamala Harris' future campaign.

"They aim to present such a truce as their achievement. Additionally, the US believes a truce could lessen the chances and scale of a retaliatory strike on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah, who are planning revenge for the eliminations of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh. This, in turn, would reduce the likelihood of a larger Middle East conflict, something the US strongly opposes," Gendelman explained.

According to Gendelman, the US is pressuring Israel, its ally, to agree with Hamas. However, significant points of contention remain unresolved, particularly regarding the control of the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, and the complete cessation of the war and withdrawal from Gaza. These unresolved issues make the prospect of an agreement uncertain.

Igor Semivolos, the executive director of the Centre for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, believes there is a possibility of reaching an agreement on the release of hostages and ending the war in Gaza. He notes that the ongoing US efforts could result in a significant political achievement for the Democratic Party. However, numerous challenges remain, including the potential for an escalation between Israel and Iran. Should this occur, the Palestinian issue might become secondary, forcing the US to join the confrontation on Israel's side due to its commitments.

Semivolos emphasizes the importance of evaluating each party's actions based on their strategic objectives. He explains that "weakness" is a key term in the current Middle Eastern context, with both Israel and Iran seeking to expose the other's vulnerabilities. Israel's strategy focuses on sidelining the Palestinian issue by targeting Iran, a supporter of Hamas. In contrast, Iran aims to maintain its strategic depth through the Shiite corridor, extending from Tehran to the eastern Mediterranean, while applying continuous pressure on Israel and its Arab allies who are aligned with Washington.

If an agreement is reached, Semivolos suggests that the Netanyahu government might face a political crisis, which could be advantageous for Iran, demonstrating Israeli weakness. Additionally, this outcome could align with US interests, as it seeks to engage Israeli political elites in a two-state solution for the Palestinian conflict. Conversely, if the agreement fails, Israel may face increased pressure not only from its key ally, the US, and European nations, but also from growing domestic discontent.

Political expert and publicist Avigdor Eskin from Jerusalem asserts that U.S. policy in the Middle East has historically aimed to placate radical Islamists and avoid direct conflict with them. "That's how Obama encouraged the Muslim Brotherhood, that's how the Biden administration allowed Iran to strengthen itself," Eskin says. He points out that the current U.S. administration is risk-averse, particularly concerning a potential war between Israel and Iran, which could pose significant threats to U.S. military bases in the region.

"Biden has sought ceasefire deals from the beginning. But that is unlikely in this situation. Israel cannot afford to leave Hamas structures in Gaza in place, which vows to repeat the 7 October massacre. No state would tolerate such a thing. And American efforts now have a symbolic value and nothing more," Eskin concludes.