A missed opportunity: Biden administration's late call for South Caucasus peace Expert insights on Caliber.Az

The United States has expressed its readiness to work with Baku and Yerevan in any format the parties choose to reach an agreement. This rather unusual statement was made by the U.S. State Department’s press office to the Armenian service of Voice of America. "The United States Government supports the efforts of Armenia and Azerbaijan to achieve a sustainable and dignified peace agreement which is of significant importance for a safe and prosperous South Caucasus. We are ready to work with the two parties in any format where both parties can agree on where they can make progress," the State Department stated.

This raises some important questions: Has the Biden administration reacted too late in addressing the future of peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan? And why, over the past four years, did the Biden administration not only fail to curb Yerevan’s revisionist ambitions but also actively arm Armenia? These are the questions that Caliber.Az’s correspondent put to foreign political analysts and experts.

According to Russian political analyst and South Caucasus expert Alexander Ryabtsov, the recent message from Washington cannot be taken seriously and is best met with a sarcastic smile – it came across as highly inappropriate.

“It’s always somewhat amusing to watch the statements made by politicians or members of their teams as they prepare to leave office. The usual stance is to gather as many political bonuses and preferences as possible in order to use that capital for future political manoeuvring. After all, when these politicians step down from top positions, their careers don’t necessarily end. Well, in Joe Biden’s case, his career is fairly clear, and he’s not going to avoid his well-deserved retirement, but some individuals from the White House and State Department are hoping to keep their jobs even after Donald Trump’s team takes over. Others hope to remain part of the active Democratic faction until a new presidential candidate emerges from the Democratic Party. It’s a common practice in American politics, given that a U.S. presidential term only lasts four years. So, such maneuvers and delayed statements are to be expected, and it’s clear they carry no significant political weight.

It’s clear that the form of U.S. mediation over the next four years will be determined by Trump and his team. However, the approach taken by the White House and the State Department under Biden has led to significant negativity in Baku, and relations between Azerbaijan and the U.S. have noticeably deteriorated due to Washington’s blatant double-dealing. Trump will likely try to restore the U.S.'s position in the South Caucasus, but he will probably avoid an aggressive approach, as that strategy failed and Baku did not succumb to pressure from Washington,” emphasized Ryabtsov.

According to Kazakh political scientist and economist Ruslan Salikhov, the U.S. State Department's recent statement, made amid the “lame-duck” mood of Joe Biden’s team, is difficult to view as anything constructive.

“In my opinion, such statements would have been better left unsaid, and the baton should have been passed to Trump’s new team to address this issue, simply because Washington’s course over the past four years has clearly aimed at undermining the peace process in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, having lost trust in the U.S., might rightfully ask: where was the U.S. in recent years when it was actively encouraging Yerevan’s revisionist ambitions and nurturing its militaristic sentiments, talking about increased military cooperation and taking steps that no responsible mediator or coordinator of negotiations should have taken? By the way, in this context, the persistent mediation efforts by the U.S. to supposedly advance dialogue between Baku and Yerevan seemed especially absurd. Under Biden, the U.S. played a double game, and this significantly contributed to Azerbaijan’s decision to reassess its view of the role of international mediators, regardless of whether they represent Washington, Brussels, or Moscow.

So, in response to this statement, Baku could very well politely ask the State Department to reboot its memory, and if that doesn't help, remind them that Azerbaijan has long since stopped needing intermediaries, successfully engaging with Yerevan directly in a bilateral format. In other words, Baku has managed just fine without them. All of this seems like a ridiculous theater: the masks have long been removed, yet the U.S. is still trying to play the role of mediator in the South Caucasus," said Salikhov.