Brandenburg: Political battleground between Scholz and AfD Europe’s gaze turns to Germany

In the regional elections held on September 22 in Brandenburg (with a population of about 2.6 million), the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) celebrated a narrow victory, receiving 30.9% of the votes. In second place was the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 29.2%. The third spot was claimed by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which narrowly surpassed the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose leaders described the results as a "bitter defeat."

Following these results, some experts believe that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) breathed a sigh of relief, even though the AfD fell just a few points short of repeating its success in Thuringia and Saxony, where the party garnered over 30%.

Thus, the traditional rule of the Social Democrats in Brandenburg, which has lasted for 34 years since the reunification of Germany (with only three prime ministers during this period), remains unshaken. The head of the Brandenburg government, Dietmar Woidke, who had previously announced he would step back from "land politics in the event of an SPD defeat," expressed his emotions openly after the preliminary results were announced. He stated that his party's goal was to create conditions to "prevent a large brown stain from emerging in Germany." According to Woidke, the task of "stopping extremists from coming to power" was achieved, as it has often happened in history, thanks to the Social Democrats.

Woidke's position is understandable, as is the euphoria he feels. However, various political circles have noted that the AfD finished with significant confidence, particularly reflected in the voter turnout of just under 75% in the current elections in Brandenburg.

At the same time, in the immediate aftermath, several analysts pointed to a sharp shift by Scholz (and the German government as a whole) toward the positions of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as one reason for the SPD's success. Various polls had shown the SPD trailing or leading the AfD by a few points before September 22, but the government’s newfound rhetoric, which increasingly aligned with issues that the AfD vehemently opposes, may have played a significant role.

In recent weeks, we have closely examined how the rhetoric of the Chancellor and the leading figures of the ruling "traffic light" coalition has shifted dramatically, with a sudden interest in seriously considering a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. This has coincided with announcements about cutting military aid to Ukraine starting next year and refocusing on migration issues.

In this context, many believe that even a minimal advantage for the Social Democrats in the recent regional elections in Brandenburg may encourage Olaf Scholz to continue incorporating slogans from the AfD into his rhetoric (and subsequently into the election platform). This includes adopting the AfD's emphasis on prioritizing the concerns of German citizens. Moreover, there is a growing sentiment in German society advocating for the urgency of achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Alongside this rhetorical shift from the government, various organizations have increasingly voiced their support for de-escalation. The evangelical Society for Peace Service (AGDF), for instance, expressed concerns regarding plans to deploy American ballistic and cruise missiles in Germany.

Regarding the AfD, it's noted that even if the party had managed to secure first place in Brandenburg, it would have faced significant challenges in forming a coalition with other political forces, most of which actively distance themselves from the "Alternative for Germany." However, the AfD's successes in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg—regardless of whether some wish to acknowledge it—highlight a growing popularity for this right-wing party in Germany. Observers point out that their support primarily comes from eastern Germany, yet in reality, they are increasingly becoming a significant political force in the country.

There is also the left-wing BSW, which, despite being only five months old, achieved impressive results in the recent local elections in eastern Germany. "We have come to stay," declared SSW co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali.

It is clear that nearly all parties view the outcomes of the recent regional elections in eastern Germany as a preliminary test ahead of the Bundestag elections scheduled for fall 2025. As emphasized by Tim Beichelt, a professor at the European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), "the elections held every four to five years in Germany's 16 states significantly influence federal politics." Thus, until next autumn, Europe’s attention will largely be directed toward Germany.