Ukraine’s presidential elections amid the shadow of war To be or not to be?

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that “the time has come” for presidential elections in Ukraine, suggesting that the Ukrainian authorities are using the ongoing war as an excuse to delay them. His comments were met with an almost immediate response from Ukraine’s current president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said: “Regarding the elections, I am always ready.”

For context, Ukraine’s next presidential elections were originally scheduled for spring 2024. However, under Article 19 of the Law “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law,” holding presidential or parliamentary elections is prohibited while martial law is in effect — a status that has been in place since 24 February 2022.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s Western partners have repeatedly stressed over the past year the importance of holding elections. In response, Zelenskyy has explained that several conditions must be met for this to occur: amendments to the Electoral Code, sufficient funding to organise the vote, and the presence of observers — including on the front lines — to ensure the legitimacy of the process.

Today, Zelenskyy appears to be taking a different stance — one he has shifted multiple times before. When running for his first term, he promised to serve only a single term as Ukraine’s president. Later, he repeatedly expressed readiness to stand for re-election, and in February 2024 even claimed he would have won had elections been held then. However, in an interview with Axios published on 24 September 2025, Zelenskyy stated that he is prepared to leave the presidency once the war ends: “My goal is to finish the war, not to continue to run for office.”

Clearly, his position changes as often as the media narrative surrounding him. At the same time, pro-government propagandists insist that Zelenskyy not only can but should participate in a new presidential election.

Against this backdrop, Deputy Head of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Serhiy Dubovyk told CNN that Ukraine needs time to prepare for free and secure elections. According to UN data, nearly six million Ukrainians are refugees abroad due to the war, while another 4.4 million are internally displaced, making the updating and verification of voter lists a major challenge.

The war has also severely damaged Ukraine’s election infrastructure. Dubovyk noted that only around 75% of polling stations are operational. Moreover, nearly one million Ukrainians serve in the military, many on the front lines, making it difficult to imagine how they could vote without a guaranteed cessation of hostilities. He added that preparing free and fair elections in line with international standards would require at least six months.

“ If polls are held sooner, it is impossible to fully guarantee compliance with all international standards,” Dubovyk concluded.

In turn, journalist Vitaliy Portnikov stated on his YouTube broadcast that if Ukraine were to hold elections during the war under security guarantees from the U.S. and Russia, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have higher chances of victory than in any post-war elections. In his view, real contenders would be unable to run full campaigns under martial law, and voters would have limited access to candidates’ programs and open debate.

“Valerii Zaluzhnyi is unlikely to resign from his post as ambassador to the UK to run in the elections, Kyrylo Budanov won’t leave his position as head of the HUR, and Andriy Biletsky won’t leave the front — none of this will happen. Most likely, it will be a conditional election campaign with Zelensky’s spoilers,” Portnikov said. He also believes that Zelensky could very well push for the idea of holding elections under martial law.

Former Verkhovna Rada deputy and blogger Boryslav Bereza, speaking with Caliber.Az, suggested separating the legal and moral-ethical aspects of the issue.

According to him, under Ukrainian law, the same person cannot serve more than two consecutive five-year presidential terms. Next April will mark seven years since Zelensky’s election, making his possible re-election legally questionable.

“We are waiting for the Constitutional Court’s decision regarding the legality of his nomination,” Bereza noted.

From a moral and ethical standpoint, he also believes Zelenskyy should not participate in the elections: “He denied the possibility of a full-scale invasion even when Western partners were literally shouting about the threat. Zelenskyy was telling the people fairy tales about May barbecues instead of preparing for war.”

The former deputy is convinced that elections should only be held after hostilities end and after six months of preparation.

“Everyone remembers that Zelenskyy promised to serve only one term as president. But apparently, power is too important to him, judging by how tightly he clings to it,” Bereza concluded.

Political analyst Yevhen Magda also shared his perspective on the matter. In his view, it is incorrect to assume that the initiative to hold elections comes from Donald Trump: “In fact, this has long been a demand of Vladimir Putin. We have repeatedly seen the U.S. president promoting ideas that are, in reality, Russian.”

The expert agreed that elections are only possible after a ceasefire. He also added that Zelensky will be pressured to hold elections not only by ambition but also by his inner circle. Losing power for him and his team would mean serious problems — including accountability for everything that happened during these years.

Magda noted that Ukrainians are indeed eager for elections, but a short election campaign could divide the country, which aligns with Russia’s plans, as destabilising internal politics is an important goal for the Kremlin.

“It is too early to talk about the potential competitors for Zelensky. First, elections must at least be announced. Could Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Petro Poroshenko, or Yulia Tymoshenko run? Yes, they could — any citizen who meets the constitutional requirements has this right. But exercising that right is only possible after hostilities end and following months of preparation,” Magda emphasised.

Opinions differ, but they share one key understanding: the cessation of hostilities is the primary condition for moving the question of presidential elections in Ukraine from the realm of theory to practical reality.

In conclusion, it is worth noting that Ukrainian voters have repeatedly demonstrated the unpredictability of their choices. If they once again choose the incumbent — despite numerous corruption scandals surrounding Zelenskyy’s inner circle and shortcomings in preparing the country for war — it would come as little surprise. Many may even vote for him simply to avoid admitting the mistake of their previous choice.