How Türkiye’s rapidly-growing defence industry is boosting its global clout? Weapons in exchange for votes

Ahead of critical presidential and general elections in Türkiye, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushes forward a relatively new narrative to make his election campaign more attractive. As such, the Turkish governmental media actively focuses on President Erdogan’s campaign highlighting the recent development of the Turkish defence industry and brand-new weaponry, including drones, armoured vehicles, fighter jets and vessels.

According to President Erdogan, the defence sector's exports hit a record volume in 2022, as he hailed a "revolution" and Türkiye's unprecedented March toward full independence in the critical industry. After exceeding its export target for the year, Türkiye’s government aims to bring that figure to $6 billion in 2023.

Turnover for the country's defence industry as a whole last year was $10 billion, according to the Ministry of Defense Industry of Türkiye. Revenue from overseas defence exports rose by 42% between 2020 and 2021, with foreign contracts making up as much as 90% of revenue for some Turkish companies — like Baykar. Currently, Türkiye is home to some 2,000 companies in the sector.

Given the steady development in the defence industry sector, the ruling AKP government appears more enthusiastic about promoting defence products as the most significant milestone of previous years while paying less attention to the severe economic crisis.

In the last few years, President Erdogan's cabinet actively sought additional investments in the country's economy, mostly from wealthy Gulf monarchies, to alleviate the acute economic crisis and inflation. However, the close economic ties and flowing Gulf investments outraged the Turkish opposition, which openly resisted the growing Arab investments in the country.

In this vein, it is safe to note that several Gulf Arab states have a large stake in Turkey's presidential elections and stand to have their years-long investments scrutinized if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses his 20-year power streak. For example, Saudi Arabia injected $5 billion into Turkey's central bank in March to help strengthen the country's currency after the two massive earthquakes that devastated its people and economy the month before. That same month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed an agreement with Erdogan to increase bilateral trade to $40 billion by 2028.

Notwithstanding, the Turkish government keeps actively promoting the success of the defence industry, suggesting that the economic crisis will be soared after the elections. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that President Erdogan very recently unveiled the Turkish navy’s flagship TCG Anadolu in April 2023, delivering the nation’s largest ship that can carry helicopters and armed drones.

Anadolu is an important step for the Turkish military. An amphibious assault ship that will be able to transfer at least a battalion-sized force and carry eight boats, it will also host vertically landing aircraft such as Baykar’s TB-3 armed drone, which will have folding wings. But it is no coincidence that Erdogan is launching this ship, which was under construction for five years, less than 34 days before the May 14 general election.

Despite technical accomplishments in the defence sector, Türkiye's military manufacturing footprint is still tiny compared to major players like the U.S., Russia, and China; it's won outsized attention for the performance of its weapons like the Bayraktar drone, which has been used in Libya, Syria, the second Karabakh war between Azerbaijan-Armenia in 2020, and more recently in Ukraine.

Undoubtedly, the brand-new defence products and decreasing dependence on the foreign defence sector yielded positive results for the AKP government and personally for President Erdogan in terms of approval ratings. In this regard, in one of his recent elections, campaign Erdogan also expressed the hope that by the end of 2023, the Hurjet training and light attack fighter, the first warplane entirely built by Turkish industries, will be handed over to the Armed Forces.

Moreover, Ankara’s fifth-generation TFX fighter successfully completed its first taxi test, as did the light combat and training aircraft Hurjet. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), a government-owned company, revealed the first picture of Anka-3, a drone with stealth capabilities.

Sales of weapons and technologies, especially drones, have helped Türkiye to improve ties internationally with states such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan and even establish new ties with various other countries such as Poland, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia.

Notably, the defence industry factor will significantly increase the ruling AKP government’s and personally President Erdogan's position in the upcoming critical elections, though it is unlikely that the government will maintain a majority in the parliament. Indeed, the defence industry products are part of the electoral strategy, intending to present Erdogan's track record as a leader who can deliver concrete results.