Pashinyan's mercantile policy will eventually lead Armenia to disaster Russia or West, money is best

Today's Minsk-hosted CSTO summit will be held without Armenia. Official Yerevan refused to participate in the event. As early as November 14, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated his refusal to come to Minsk in a telephone conversation with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Defence and Foreign Ministers Suren Papikyan and Ararat Mirzoyan, as well as Speaker of the National Assembly Alen Simonyan, followed Pashinyan's example and rejected to attend the CSTO summit.

In other words, Yerevan narrows down its participation in the CSTO and CIS, while increasing military-technical and political cooperation with the US and the EU. But what draws attention to itself, Armenia is simultaneously trying to make a certain room for manoeuvre, convincing Moscow that it has no plans to withdraw from the organisations it oversees.

But statements are statements, while the reality is that for the interested parties in this issue, Moscow and Washington, it is Armenia's actions and final choice that matter. Is Armenia ready to withdraw from the CSTO? Hardly, and it has several reasons for that.

First, Yerevan has no political will for such a radical step.

Second, Armenia does not have any direct or even indirect security guarantees from the West and the United States, except declarative statements.

Third, Armenia is economically highly dependent on Russia and is not ready to lose preferences from participation in the EAEU.

Therefore, the current demarche of the Armenian side with regard to the CSTO is rather an unsuccessful attempt by Yerevan to blackmail Moscow. To put things in their proper names, Yerevan has played games and lost touch with reality. However, Armenia traditionally does not know how to foresee the consequences of its policy.

Having lost the war with Azerbaijan, Armenia now risks losing the remnants of its statehood, getting involved in a dangerous game between the West and Russia, without thinking that it may repeat the fate of Ukraine. By the way, the Russian expert community is already openly warning it about this. Even the State Duma has already made statements that Armenia risks repeating the Ukrainian scenario. According to analysts, given the West's plans to oust Russia from the South Caucasus, the Ukrainianization of Armenia seems to be the most likely scenario for the future of the "country of stones".

In a conversation with Caliber.Az, Alexander Kobrinsky, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Director of the Russian Agency for Ethno-National Strategies (RAES), noted that despite Yerevan's demarche, the Armenian leadership will not dare to withdraw Armenia from the CSTO in the near future.

"Otherwise it will entail tragic consequences for Armenia. It is not only about the military infrastructure or the Russian base in Gyumri, but also the factor of Iran since they have common land borders, as well as Armenia's trade turnover with Russia and the rest of the EAEU countries. Therefore, Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO can be regarded as an escapade not only against Russia but also against Iran. It is obvious that Nikol Pashinyan has put Armenia up for auction: the country will join whoever pays the most. There is no doubt that such a policy will eventually lead Armenia to disaster.

On the other hand, I think it is pointless for Armenia to purchase a variety of armaments. For example, Yerevan purchased obsolete French armoured vehicles, which Ukraine refused to buy. But that's half the trouble. I should note that the operation of French armoured vehicles requires time and training. Now Armenia has received 4 million dollars from the United States allegedly to help the Karabakh Armenians. Russia does not offer it such money.

Armenia can be used as a spark for inciting hatred in the region. And this can become a big problem not only for Armenia itself but also for its closest neighbours," Alexander Kobrinsky explained.