Peacekeepers' withdrawal from Karabakh - matter of time Expert opinions at Caliber.Az

The Russian peacekeeping contingent will leave Karabakh after signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Armenian Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan said recently.

"After the signing of the peace treaty, it will be simply senseless to keep Russian troops there. Today it is already problematic because now this army cannot and does not want to control the Lachin corridor," Bagratyan said.

Baku and Yerevan are currently working on a draft peace treaty, which can be signed in the near future.

How right can the Armenian ex-premier be in his assessment and prediction? Will Moscow withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani territory after the signing of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan? Or will it try to keep its troops in the Azerbaijani region by any means possible? What circumstances might influence this or that decision of Moscow?

Foreign experts shared their thoughts on the matter with Caliber.Az.

As Russian expert on the South Caucasus Konstantin Tasits notes, according to the signed documents, the stay of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh is temporary and depends on the settlement of existing contradictions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

"The Trilateral Statement of November 9/10, 2020 clearly states that each party may declare its intention to terminate the Russian peacekeeping contingent six months before the expiration of the five-year placement period. In November 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that the future fate of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh and the decision to extend their mandate would be linked to other issues, in particular, the conclusion of a peace treaty and the delimitation and demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Tasits said.

According to Ukrainian Politics Foundation Head, Analysist, Historian Konstantin Bondarenko, if a peace treaty is signed (i.e., a documented confirmation of the end of the conflict), the need for peacekeeping forces is exhausted.

"Under international law, the mandate of peacekeeping forces is terminated or prolonged for a short period of time - to make sure that the treaty really came into force. But I do not rule out that Russia might offer Armenia and Azerbaijan some option of establishing a Russian military base in the region - for example, in exchange for economic or political preferences. However, it is hard for me to imagine what Russia could offer Azerbaijan to agree to such an option. Therefore, most likely, the troop withdrawal will take place," Bondarenko believes.

Moreover, Russian political Democratic Choice party Co-chairman, member of the board of the Liberal Mission Foundation Sergei Zhavoronkov said "To begin with, I am still not sure that a peace treaty will be signed."

“As far as I understand, Azerbaijan would like to squeeze the maximum out of the situation, i.e., not only to return Karabakh but also to provide a corridor to Nakhchivan, which was discussed in the ceasefire statement. Armenia, in turn, would like some additional guarantees of the rights of the Armenian population in Karabakh, in addition to the general words of the authorities about compliance with the law. After all, there is such an issue as the interpretation of the events of almost 30 years in Karabakh from the point of view of Azerbaijani law, which can affect a significant part of the local population.

But if the peace treaty will be signed, then there is indeed no need for the Russian contingent in Karabakh from either Armenian or Azerbaijani point of view, and it must be withdrawn no later than November 2025.

However, legally, it is stationed there until 2025 irrespective of the peace treaty. Afterwards, I believe, the Russian Federation will have neither legal grounds nor the actual possibility to leave it there. That's why I think that the current Russian authorities wouldn't want such a peace treaty, but on the other hand, they don't want to support the current Armenian authorities, and they have a question: why do we need the contingent (incidentally, not only in Karabakh but also bases in Armenia) if it is not going to interfere in the conflict with Azerbaijan (whereas, in terms of domestic Armenian policy, this contingent must interfere)," Zhavoronkov concluded.