Сan Middle East knot be cut? Israeli analyst weighs in

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Yuri Bocharov, Israeli political scientist and editor of the website Aziznews.com, provides insights into the current situation in Gaza and around it.

- What is the current situation in Israel and the Gaza Strip? So, contrary to forecasts, negotiations with Hamas were stopped again, and Israel, despite US pressure, invaded the Gaza capital, Rafah. What are your predictions?

- In the opinion of almost all Israeli officials, the operation in Rafah is the only possible option to put pressure on Hamas to resolve the issue of returning the hostages. In principle, this operation has been going on “quietly” in Rafah for about a week now. The Israel Defense Forces began bombing parts of the city and took steps to push part of the population out of the city into pre-prepared areas for refugees. As a result, as soon as the IDF took concrete military action to send in troops and cut off the city of Rafah from the border with Egypt, Hamas immediately announced that it was ready to discuss the issue of hostages, but as always only on its own terms. However, all these words are a bluff, aimed only at one’s own survival, without taking into account the interests of both the residents of the Gaza Strip and the hostages. Therefore, the operation will continue, despite the tricks and threats of Hamas, to blow up the security fence with Egypt and send there an uncontrolled flow of refugees from the sector. Israel will not be stopped by pressure from the world community. The Israeli government has a duty to its country, to its people, who demand by force of arms the release of the hostages and an end to the Hamas terrorist structure in the Gaza Strip.

- How are Israel’s relations with the United States now? Some experts claim that the United States has stopped supplying Israel with ammunition, which should also be perceived as a factor of pressure on Tel Aviv, but a number of Israeli experts note that this is really just a well-thought-out information hoax; the United States “quietly” continues to supply everything necessary for Israel.

- Presidential elections are currently underway in America, and therefore the entire foreign and domestic policy of the Joe Biden administration is aimed only at resolving this issue. And in this regard, all statements made to her on any aspect of foreign policy should be considered as a PR campaign aimed at her own voter. At the same time, the American administration and Joe Biden personally, including through almost threats to stop military assistance, are putting pressure on Israel and its leadership in order to achieve, if not peace, then at least calm in the region and freezing the military operation. However, it is unlikely that the course of the Israeli government will change because of this, as well as the fact that the American administration will carry out its threats and stop the supply of weapons to Israel; too many serious figures and structures on both sides of the ocean are tied to this process.

- There are opinions that the strategy of “controlled chaos” has been applied in the Middle East, and Israel is skillfully drawn into the war, and is only an instrument of a well-thought-out game, the beneficiary of which is actually specific forces. Who are they or he? Will there be a big war in the Middle East or are we already living in the era of a third world war, the epicentre of which has become the Eastern Mediterranean?

- There is now a lot of discussion about who, why and how started another war in the Middle East and who benefits from it. However, we should not forget that in parallel with all the “hot” and “cold” wars, there is also an information war, which almost never ends, even when the guns are silent. But the beneficiaries of information wars are very difficult to calculate because they “shoot” in the world media at too many targets, casting doubts and sometimes shock on both the population and the leadership of many countries around the world. As a rule, war does not always lead to the capture of a country and the loss of its independence, since most often war unites the population of the country, but shock and doubts lead to unrest and stratification of society, causing negative tendencies and splits in it, which usually leads to “colour” revolutions, with all the ensuing consequences. This is what the beneficiaries of information wars usually try to take advantage of.

- Azerbaijan and Israel are known to be strategic partners in any weather and in almost any geopolitical situation. You recently visited Baku, what are your feelings from contacts with representatives of the Jewish diaspora in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani political scientists?

- I was very pleased to be back in the city of my youth. And although a lot has changed here, the main thing that has not changed is the people, their attitude to life, their understanding of friendship and brotherhood. And despite the years that have passed since my studies and work here, those with whom I worked and were friends in my youth, despite all their current high positions and positions, provided me with the same warm welcome and help as they did thirty years ago. I was offered to speak to students at the state academy and on television and in the press, with stories about events in the Middle East. And I was glad, judging by the responses, that our vision of peace and development in the region is supported by almost the majority of citizens of the republic. Thanks to them and the entire leadership of the republic for this and for their partnership in the name of peace and in almost any geopolitical situation.