Superpowers' guarantees should be viewed with skepticism Caliber.Az interview with UK’s journalist

Caliber.Az has had an interview with UK’s journalist, former editor-in-chief of the BBC World Service which was broadcasting in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), political expert Yuri Goligorsky.

— The conference in which the representatives of the EU, the US and Armenia will take part will be held on April 5. How do you assess the conference where Yerevan will be provided with some security guarantees? What are the West’s intentions? The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, by the way, has already expressed its position and noted that the conference is one-sided, biased and based on double standards.

In general, I assess the conference positively, but with reservations. In the current situation in the international arena, the West needs tranquility in the South Caucasus. There will be one less problem. It will be possible to concentrate on the most important problem now - the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Why do I say positively? There is no alternative to discussions. Why did I mention about reservations? After the famous Budapest Memorandum was misinterpreted, any international guarantees given by superpowers should be considered with skepticism. Who will guarantee the guarantees of the guarantors?

As for the policy of double standards, this is the world of political realities, where people have their own interests, which they interpret as it is beneficial to them at this moment.

In general, I do not see an alternative to direct and intensive negotiations directly between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is the shortest and most reliable way to achieve peace, which would suit both Baku and Yerevan.

Can anyone trust French President Emmanuel Macron's statement about the direct participation of the EU member states in the war in Ukraine?

— I have already mentioned the notorious Budapest Memorandum and its violation. The West cannot lose again in the struggle between the might of truth and the right of might.

Who could believe that Ukraine posed a threat to Russia's security? Ukraine just wanted to live separately from the so-called current “Russian world”. It was not greatly different from other countries that were part of the Soviet Union in the past.

As for Macron's words, I consider them thoughtless, aggravating the situation and giving arguments for Russian propagandists. Ukraine needs Western shells, missiles and tanks, rather than military personnel.

Deeds not words are required. In practice, $5 billion obtained as a result of the frozen Russian assets that the EU intends to transfer to Ukraine is a much more effective tool than unsubstantiated statements.

I was pleasantly surprised by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statement. During a meeting with Russian military pilots, Putin said that Russia’s war with NATO is “nonsense”.

Putin mentioned an interesting argument. The Russian leader said that the US spent $811 billion on defence while Russia only $72 billion in 2022. That is, Putin emphasised the incommensurability of the two military machines.

— France, in fact, has turned into a catalyst for conflicts and intrigues in different parts of the planet. Having lost influence in Africa, Paris is actively trying, through Yerevan, to spark a war in the South Caucasus and manipulate the region, seizing new spheres of influence. How can you describe Macron's policy in the South Caucasus?

— Macron’s policy in the South Caucasus is most likely a continuation of domestic policy in France itself, in its struggle for votes. This resembles France's desire to create a European army, separate from NATO forces. Who will finance this?

Paris did not give an answer to this. Emmanuel Macron and UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak started their careers in financial sector. However, Sunak never makes statements that do not have a financial basis.

Every politician must count money and balance wishes with financial capabilities which is an extremely important quality.

 — What will be the future policy of the US and London in the South Caucasus? Will it change if Donald Trump returns to power in the US? What are your predictions and feelings?

— Have you ever accidentally broken a thermometer in childhood? I broke and I often got hit by my mother. I was even more upset because I could not collect the balls of mercury that had rolled across the floor.

Today the whole world looks like a small child trying to catch the rolling balls of mercury and put into one container. If I start listing all the regional conflicts that in one way or another concern diplomats and politicians in the US and UK, we will not have enough time.

I think that London understands the complexity of the problems in the South Caucasus better than the US. Of course, UK’s diplomats will try to “catch more droplets of mercury” than American ones. This will become even more obvious if Donald Trump returns to power. He will probably have no time to deal with the issues in the South Caucasus.