The Black Sea Grain Initiative is killed off What comes next?

On July 18, the Crimean Bridge, a supply route for Russian forces in Ukraine, was hit by an explosion, forcing the span’s temporary closure for a second time in less than a year. While the Kremlin vowed to retaliate following a "terrorist" attack on the bridge, the Ukrainian intelligence claimed responsibility for the attack and described the attack as a joint operation of the SBU and Ukraine’s naval forces by using floating drones.

The bridge attack repeatedly stirred debates in Russia as to whether the country is able to protect its critically important infrastructure from Ukrainian forces amid tactical losses and political instability.

Satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies showed severe damage to the bridge's eastbound and westbound lanes across the Kerch Strait on the part nearest to the Russian mainland, with at least one section collapsed. The railroad bridge that runs parallel to the highway appeared undamaged. The bridge was opened in 2018 and enabled road and rail travel between Russia and Crimea, a Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014.

The explosion came at a time when the situation around Ukraine was getting more critical. Russia cautiously watched NATO's most recent Vilnius Summit, which President Volodymyr Zelensky attended. Of greater concern, NATO members agreed to supply additional weapons to Ukraine and discussed Kyiv’s membership in the bloc. Although no particular statements were made regarding Ukraine’s membership, Russia harshly criticized NATO’s enlargement toward its eastern flanks.

Ukraine's more assertive stance on the membership policy and deepening ties with the NATO bloc, particularly with Türkiye, Russia's leading partner, inevitably affected Russia's approach. For example, President Zelensky's most recent visit to Ankara to meet his counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, resulted in the agreement to build a new manufacturing facility of Baykar company, a Turkish drone manufacturer, in Ukraine.

Indeed, such news generated harsh criticism of Erdogan by Russian ultranationalists and conservative politicians and resulted in Russia quitting the critically important great deal, which Türkiye and the United Nations brokered in July 2022.

On July 17, Russia issued a statement that it would no longer guarantee the safety of shipping in the northwestern Black Sea after quitting a year-old deal that allowed Ukraine to export tens of millions of tons of grain. The official reason is that supplying grain to countries in need "has not been realized," whilst Russia faced obstacles exporting its own food.

Nevertheless, Russia left an open window that the deal may be restored if Moscow's concerns are addressed. Unsurprisingly, Ukraine and Western countries accused Russia of using the Green Deal as a weapon to exert more pressure on the alliance.

Since the deal was struck, UN data show that about 32.9 million metric tonnes of grain (mainly corn and wheat) have left the Black Sea. They accounted for 16.9 million tonnes and 8.91 million tonnes, respectively. Ukraine is often referred to as the breadbasket of Europe, with more than 55 per cent of its land being arable.

Post-invasion, Ukraine was the eighth-largest producer of corn and the ninth-largest producer of wheat in the 2022-2023 period. Moreover, the Black Sea grain deal offered an economic lifeline to Ukrainian farmers and food-insecure nations hit by turmoil in agricultural markets following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Notably, Moscow’s withdrawal from the deal will deprive Ukraine of a major part of its hard-currency revenues and drive-up global food prices and European inflation. However, the recent numbers suggest that the Black Sea Grain Initiative had more or less ground to a halt even before Russia finally walked away. The number of shipments had fallen, with only 1.3 million metric tons exported in May. No new vessels had been registered under the initiative since the end of June.

Despite Russian warnings, Kyiv is working on a backup plan to continue the grain export without the deal with Russia. This hinges in part on a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred by ships moving through the Black Sea and in part on shipping more grain out through Europe’s Danube River.

The grain deal will have grave consequences for poor countries that are dependent on export. Therefore, any drop in global supplies or market volatility impacts poor countries facing food insecurity, particularly war-torn Africa and Middle Eastern countries.