Türkiye greenlights Sweden's NATO bid Review by Shereshevskiy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to send Sweden's application for NATO membership to the country's parliament. The announcement was made by Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a press conference ahead of the organisation's summit in Vilnius.

"I am pleased to report that President Erdogan has agreed to send the protocol on Sweden's accession to NATO to the Grand National Assembly [parliament] as soon as possible and to work closely with it to ensure ratification,” he said.

Stoltenberg, however, did not give a specific date for the ratification of Sweden's NATO accession agreement by the Turkish parliament, saying that only the deputies would determine the exact timeline. Since the Grand National Assembly is dominated by Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party, which is led by Erdogan, who wields enormous influence, there is little doubt that the Turkish legislature will approve the executive's proposal. Unless, of course, there are any surprises. It is worth noting that three months ago, it took the Turkish parliament two weeks to ratify Finland's membership.

From the history of the matter. After the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland abandoned their policy of non-alignment and immediately applied for NATO membership. However, according to the rules of the Alliance, applications for membership must be approved by all members of the organisation, and Türkiye was against membership of these countries for more than a year.

Hungary supported it for a while but then withdrew its objections. Subsequently, Finland still received a favour from Ankara and in April this year became a member of the North Atlantic bloc. And Sweden kept bumping into Türkiye’s objections.

Meanwhile, the entry of Sweden and Finland, as military experts believe, means a significant strategic strengthening of the bloc, which is its priority task in connection with the growing confrontation with Russia and China. That is why the United States and its allies have been trying to influence Ankara to allow Stockholm to join the bloc.

Erdogan's refusal, however, should be explained. It was he who pointed out that Sweden harbours supporters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an organisation that wages an armed struggle against the Turkish state, advocating Kurdish independence or autonomy. In Türkiye, the PKK is officially classified as a terrorist organisation.

Ankara was also irritated by the fact that Kurdish activists in Sweden organise protests against Türkiye, collect funds to finance the PKK and other Kurdish associations, and the Swedish authorities do not suppress these activities. And Erdogan demanded that if Stockholm wants to join NATO, it should remove terrorists and extremists from its country and stop supporting them.

The Swedes were at first angered by Türkiye’s reproaches, but then they realized that they would not be able to overstep it, which means that they should negotiate with Erdogan, as the Finns did earlier. And now Sweden has recently assured that it has met all the requirements agreed upon in talks with Türkiye last year, including the adoption of a new bill that would make "membership in a terrorist organisation illegal."  

But Stockholm did make a certain reservation, saying that freedom of speech is protected by the Swedish Constitution, which, apparently, should be understood as follows: we will try to suppress the activities of the PKK, but we cannot prohibit citizens from taking part in certain demonstrations.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s stubbornness over the Scandinavians' bids was not just about the PKK, but about a host of other issues, including supporting its move toward membership in the European Union, as well as receiving an impressive military package from the US to modernise its air force.

And now, on the eve of the upcoming summit, Erdogan has once again held long talks with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

"It was a good day for Sweden," Kristersson told reporters afterwards.

And a statement released by both countries said Sweden intends to intensively support efforts to boost Türkiye’s EU accession process. And Erdogan said the European Union should open the way for Ankara's accession even before the Turkish parliament approves Sweden's application for NATO membership.

Как известно, в октябре 2021 года Турция решила потратить 20 млрд долл. на покупку истребителей F-16 новейшей модификации Block 70 производства Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N)  и около 80 комплектов модернизации в эту версию имеющихся у нее боевых самолетов данного типа. Поскольку Конгресс США воспротивился этой сделке, Эрдоган использовал вопрос о членстве Швеции для оказания давления на Вашингтон в том числе для приобретения боевых самолетов.

As is known, in October 2021, Türkiye decided to spend $20 billion to buy F-16 fighter jets of the latest Block 70 modification produced by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) and about 80 upgrade kits to this version of its existing combat aircraft of this type. As the US Congress opposed the deal, Erdogan used the issue of Sweden's membership to put pressure on Washington for the acquisition of combat aircraft, among other things.

As the airplane deal moved forward, Erdogan finally decided not to oppose Stockholm's entry into the alliance. And now US President Joe Biden, who welcomed Ankara's decision, is going to discuss the F-16 deal and other issues with Erdogan personally.

Earlier, US Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Jake Sullivan said: "President Biden has made it clear that the sale of F-16s is appropriate for bilateral US-Turkish relations".

In general, what is happening now can be regarded as Türkiye’s rapprochement with other NATO countries. And this is of great importance for Ankara. First of all, in these troubling times, the renewal of the air force fleet is a matter of utmost importance.

Secondly, the Turkish economy is still experiencing difficulties due to inflation and certain capital outflow. At the same time, the country is in economic symbiosis with the European Union. It is, for example, one of the largest producers of passenger cars on the European market, but the growing Turkish military-industrial complex still depends to some extent on imports of the latest European and American technologies. 

That is why Ankara today, more than ever before, is interested in expanding economic ties with Europe and America, in technologies and investments. And it is impossible to get them without political rapprochement.

Erdogan's agreement to Sweden's NATO bid should be seen in this context. His other decisions made on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius, including the release of the commanders of the Ukrainian Azov unit interned in Türkiye, the sale of the latest Turkish Firtina howitzers to Ukraine, and his statement on the need for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance, are not coincidental.  

However, Ankara is very independent and will consistently defend its interests. If its expectations are suddenly deceived, it is in a position to cause its bloc partners a lot of trouble. Erdogan has already shown how it works....