What’s at stake in the upcoming elections in Türkiye? Race kicks off to hold on to power

With Türkiye’s presidential and parliamentary elections less than five weeks away, the recent public opinion polls are showing a tight contest between the two dominant candidates President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Türkiye’s most respected polling company, MetroPoll, revealed that its March research on voters’ attitudes showed a slender 2.6% lead for Kilicdaroglu, who heads the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and is the candidate of the Nation Alliance.

Nevertheless, the elections are still away, and a lot could happen in this short time frame that would change the balance. The Nation Alliance, consisting of six opposition par­ties (“Table of Six”), was formed in an attempt to play out the ruling AKP government of the long-term President Recep Tayyip Erdogan amid a sharpening economic crisis worsened by the recent devastating earthquakes.

Although many argued that the opposition's main candidate Kemal Kilichdaroglu, a former bureaucrat and economist, possesses little chance of beating rich-experienced President Erdogan, who has been ruling the country for two decades, however, the renewed numbers of surveys demonstrate that since the start of the year, Kilicdaroglu is closing the gap, as support for Erdogan fell from 45.9% in January to 42% in March — a period that saw Türkiye hit by devastating earthquakes, leading to criticism of the government’s response — while those backing Kilicdaroglu rose from 43% to 44.6%.

Moreover, in order to get support from the younger generation, namely students and young bureaucrats, the opposition alliance announced the Common Policies’ Consensus Text. The 244-page text comprised nine sections detailing the opposition alliance's future program if they would win the upcoming election. To compare, President Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) do not have a policy text with the same clarity and scope.

In this vein, Türkiye’s economic turmoil is a top issue on the election platform of the six-party Nation Alliance, which is mounting the strongest challenge yet to the ruling AKP government. The opposition vows to adopt a policy to create macroeconomic stability, such as the Central Bank’s return to its primary objective to fight against inflation. Removal of all constraints that can potentially distort the banking sector's balance sheet. Begin to reduce and gradually eliminate black holes in the budget.

The announcement of such an ambitious economic plan by the country's opposition should not come as a surprise, considering the current account deficit that reached nearly $50 billion last year and amounted to more than 5.5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The current harsh economic crisis and monetary policy failure stem from the country's Central Bank gradually losing its independence initiated by the ruling government, which significantly limited its ability to ensure price stability in the local market. Such a decision outraged the leading opposition parties, which guaranteed that the bank's leading role would be restored to ease the ongoing crisis. The new economic strategy also includes reforms to tackle income disparities and undo the country’s executive presidency system, introduced in 2018 and today widely regarded as a strongly centralized one-man rule.

Although economic plans were the major part of the opposition's pre-election campaign, the alliance also focused on vitally important political issues, such as renewed bid of Türkiye for membership in the European Union (EU) and revitalized relations with the Western partners. In fact, the opposition alliance signals that in case of a full victory in the upcoming elections, the new government will strictly stick to the orthodox economic policy to compensate for losses in the last two years.

Nevertheless, it is arguable to what extent the opposition’s orthodox economy plans will fit into the post-quake reality of Türkiye. As such, the opposition would need to revise the program, as the recent earthquake claimed more than 50,000 lives and destroyed or severely damaged 650,000 homes and businesses. The estimated cost of reconstruction ranges around $150 billion.

Indeed, the post-quake crisis pushed the opponents to shift their agenda and emphasize more socio-economic problems amid rising concerns. Notwithstanding, no matter of winner of the critical elections, the new government will face challenging tasks in the post-quake period in light of the dramatically growing public discontent and political fragmentation.