Will Russian peacekeepers stay in Karabakh? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The Armenian Hraparak newspaper citing the sources close to Russian peacekeepers, has published an interesting article that the Russian peacekeeping contingent is allegedly discussing with Baku the conditions of its stay in Karabakh until 2030.

“A group of Russians has recently gone to Baku and announced the peacekeepers’ intention. Baku wondered about the further mission of the peacekeepers in Karabakh. The Russian side did not rule out that several thousand Armenians would return to their houses and then the need for the Russian peacekeepers’ presence would arise again,” Hraparak quoted the source as saying.

Hraparak also mentions the statements of former leader of the liquidated puppet entity Samvel Shahramanyan regarding the “beginning of negotiations on the return of Armenians to Karabakh,” which he voiced in an interview with Public Television Company on October 29, 2023.

Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabayov and Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin shared their opinions with Caliber.Az on the likelihood of negotiations between Baku and Moscow in connection with the extension of term of the Russian peacekeepers’ stay in Karabakh until 2030.

Musabayov noted that the Armenian source that provided such information does not inspire confidence.

“The issue is that the presence of the Russian peacekeepers on Azerbaijani territory does not have any military significance for Russia. What problem are they solving there? None! As long as the puppet entity existed, it was an important lever of pressure on Azerbaijan and Armenia, and indeed, the presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh was important for Moscow, as it retained such a tool,” the Azerbaijani MP said.

“Even if we assume that tomorrow several thousand Armenians want to return to Karabakh, it is clear that they will not have any status, and the presence of the Russian peacekeepers there will not give any strategic or tactical advantages for Moscow. Therefore, the Russian peacekeepers or most of them will be withdrawn before 2025, as Russia must send its military contingent to Ukraine,” he noted.

“On the other hand, I do not rule out that until 2025 some Russian peacekeepers will remain in Karabakh, but after this period I do not see any grounds for their further presence in this region. I don’t see any benefit in them for Russia and Azerbaijan,” the Azerbaijani MP said.

“It is quite possible that for some period after 2025 a monitoring group, which will include Russian and Turkish military personnel, may remain in Karabakh. If any Armenians want to return to Karabakh, or to visit the graves of relatives, the Turkish and Russian military personnel can, if necessary, ensure security. Moreover, their presence actually neutralises the attempts of some Western patrons of the Armenians, namely, France, to create some international mission,” he added.

In turn, Russian expert Vladislav Shurygin said that negotiations between Baku and Moscow regarding the presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh until 2030 may be held.

“Armenians left Karabakh en masse. However, as far as I know, the Azerbaijani leadership never mentioned that there should be no more Armenians in Karabakh. Therefore, some Armenians are likely to return to Karabakh in the future,” he noted.

“In this case, the importance of the presence of peacekeepers in the region will increase, as their mission was initially to prevent any problems in the relations between Azerbaijanis and Armenians in Karabakh. However, the issue is whether Baku will agree to extend the Russian peacekeepers’ stay in Karabakh,” the Russian expert added.

“If the Azerbaijani leadership finds some sense in this, then I think that they may well come to a consensus by discussing the format of the presence of the Russian contingent in the region and revising previous agreements. I don’t think that either side will put pressure on the other on this issue. They will try to resolve this issue within the logic and common sense,” Shurygin said.

As for the issue of the reintegration of the Armenians of Karabakh into Azerbaijani society, the Russian expert said that this process is quite possible for those who decide to return to Karabakh.

“Karabakh is Azerbaijan, and this is not in dispute. If Armenians remain to live on the Azerbaijani territory, then, of course, they receive Azerbaijani citizenship and accept all Azerbaijani laws. In this case, Yerevan’s desire does not matter, as Armenia can no longer dictate conditions or change this process,” the Russian political analyst added.

While speaking about the infringement of rights that Karabakh Armenians are already facing in Yerevan, the Russian political analyst reminded the Russian proverb about wolves and a little elk calf.

“We must understand that only a country with a stable economy can accept refugees. Otherwise, this becomes a big problem for the authorities, and if they are unable to bear this burden, then as a consequence this leads to big tension within society. Therefore, it is unclear how Armenia will solve the problem of the Karabakh Armenians,” Shurygin said, noting that the Armenian leadership in the current depressing economic situation for Armenia is trying to gain profit from several sides, just to get at least some preferences from the West, even by participating in Russian integration projects.

In turn, proceeding from Shurygin’s words, if the Armenians want to return to Karabakh, then it is logical for this process to proceed simultaneously with the return of the Azerbaijanis to Western Zangezur. Otherwise, this is only in Armenia’s benefit, without taking into account the interests of Azerbaijan. There are Armenians in Karabakh, but there are no Azerbaijanis in their ancestral territories in Western Zangezur.