Why did the Iran-Russia jet deal collapse? Reluctant partnership amid war

In March of 2023, the Iranian authorities announced that Tehran reached a new agreement with Moscow on purchasing new Sukhoi-35 (Su-35) fighter jets as defence cooperation between the two countries deepened.

The sanctions-hit Iran air force has an ageing aircraft fleet and has struggled to acquire spare parts to keep its warplanes in the air. Although under international sanctions, namely the U.N.'s 2231 resolution, Iran is banned from importing conventional weapons, Moscow’s argument was that Su-35 jets do not fall under this particular category.

Iran’s fighter fleets are mostly made up of 1970s-era U.S. aircraft, such as the F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger, as well as old F-14 Tomcats, acquired prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The country also has smaller numbers of Chinese Chengdu J-7 based on the Russian MiG-21 and 1980s-era MiG-21 fighters.

In the emerging arrangement between Russia and Iran to supply each other with weapons, the former has received hundreds of Iranian drones to rain on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. Iran is gaining essential battlefield expertise and experience in Ukraine that will eventually transfer to its dangerous proxies in the Middle East.

On top of that, Moscow has funnelled captured U.S. and other Western weaponry in Ukraine to Tehran for detailed inspection and replication. Since the war broke up, U.S., NATO and other Western officials have seen several instances of Russian forces seizing smaller, shoulder-fired weapons equipment, including Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft systems that the Ukrainian troops have at times been forced to leave behind on the battlefield.

Under this formal agreement, Western intelligence supposed that Iran could have received access to modern Western helicopters and combat drone technology. Indeed, Russia believes that continuing to provide captured Western weapons to Iran will incentivize Tehran to maintain its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. In this regard, Moscow’s decision to export Su-35 fighter jets to Iran is a significant step in deepening the Moscow-Tehran security relationship.

Moscow has carefully calibrated its arms sales to Iran with its other military and diplomatic relations in the region. The most notable transaction in the past decade was Iran's acquisition of the Russian S-300 air defence system in 2016. However, Russia's military ties to Iran have been cautiously watched in the West and Israel. Despite Israel's long-standing discontent with Moscow-Tehran defence ties, Russia did not retreat from its stance until the war in Ukraine flared up.

With the tactical losses of Russia in Ukraine amid Kyiv's counteroffensive, Israel doubled pressure on Russia regarding the Su-35 deal, threatening it to hand over the modern air defence system to Ukraine if Moscow proceeded with the jet deal with Iran. In June 2023, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin regarding the jet deal. Whether due to Israeli threats or technical reasons, Iran did not receive any single fighter jet from Russia as of July 2023.

Some analysts even argued that the much-awaited Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets the country was set to receive from Russia might never be delivered. Seven months after that announcement, the Russian Su-35s are yet to be delivered to the Iranian Air Force. Moreover, amid critical debates, the country's defence minister, Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, said the state could manufacture combat aircraft at home, which implied a potential change in rhetoric. Ashtiani’s main argument is that Iran's aviation industry "is in a good state," adding, "If we feel there is a need, we will pursue it."

Considering such statements, it is safe to argue that Iran-Russia's recent jet deal has fallen through. Unsurprisingly, the collapsed deal generated many speculations emphasizing Israel and the U.S.'s potential role in the process. The American government has also expressed concerns about the extensive military cooperation between Russia and Iran, considering it potentially harmful to regional stability.

Moreover, a more plausible explanation is that the obstacle is Russia's refusal to transfer crucial technology for producing Su-35 parts in Iran and providing knowledge for domestic maintenance for the next 30 years. In this vein, it is vital to recall Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces' earlier comments that the Russian government refuses to transfer technology for the production of their parts in Iran as well as to provide the knowledge for maintaining the aircraft domestically.

Although the jet deal between Iran and Russia did not yield results, any flow of additional conventional weaponry to Iran will exacerbate tensions in the Middle East and raise the potential for future conflict in the region.