A complicated peace in Middle East and Zelenskyy’s Washington visit Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, featuring the week’s key news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev participated in the Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh. We will discuss the summit itself in the section dedicated to the Middle East. For now, in the context of Azerbaijan, it is worth noting that Aliyev’s invitation to such an important event reflects the country’s growing authority on the global stage. As has been the case at similar events, the Peace Summit served as an excellent platform for informal bilateral meetings.

The past week was also marked by signs of improving relations between Azerbaijan and France. Symbolically, this took place during the presentation of credentials to President Ilham Aliyev by the new French ambassador, Sophie Lagoutte. More precisely, it all began during Aliyev’s meeting with Emmanuel Macron in Copenhagen. Aliyev noted this during his meeting with the ambassador, stating that, as a result of the meeting on the sidelines of the European Political Community Summit, issues that had caused misunderstandings between the two countries are now in the past. The ambassador, in turn, remarked that a new chapter has opened in relations between Azerbaijan and France and emphasised her commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.

France is a country with a great history and culture, and it was truly regrettable that it chose a path of confrontation with Azerbaijan—based on a completely shaky foundation: its support for Armenia’s territorial claims against our country. There is a large Armenian diaspora in France, largely indifferent to the real problems and aspirations of ordinary people in Armenia, and they will, of course, continue to fuel anti-Azerbaijani sentiment within French society for a long time. However, the positive development is that, at the very least, such sentiments will disappear from the sphere of intergovernmental relations.

The First Vice-President of Azerbaijan, Mehriban Aliyeva, is on an official visit to the Vatican. The extensive program includes, among other things, a review of the restoration work carried out at the Basilicas of Saint Peter and Saint Paul with the support of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation. As part of the visit, Mehriban Aliyeva met with the head of the Roman Catholic Church, Pope Leo XIV. During the meeting, it was emphasised that relations and bilateral ties between the Vatican and Azerbaijan have seen significant development in recent years.

As part of the visit, the administrative office of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Holy See was officially inaugurated. Mehriban Aliyeva’s visit to the Vatican became an important milestone in the development of our country’s relations with the Roman Catholic Church.

Indeed, the Pope has no divisions, but he possesses immense spiritual influence over the entire Catholic world — and that, notably, means nearly one and a half billion people spread across all continents, or about 17 per cent of the world’s population. In this context, it is crucial to maintain a relationship of trust with the Vatican — one might say it is the key to fostering friendly ties with the entire Catholic community. Azerbaijan is demonstrating an exemplary policy in this regard. This is yet another reflection of the multicultural character of Azerbaijani society and statehood.

Meanwhile, in Armenia, the struggle of the ruling elites continues against both the pro-Russian opposition and the Armenian Church backing it. The Anti-Corruption Court of Armenia extended the detention of Samvel Karapetyan, president of “Tashir Group,” for another 30 days. Recall that he was arrested on charges of calling for the seizure of power.

Simultaneously, a court in Yerevan detained Bishop Mkrtich Proshyan, head of the Aragatsotn Diocese and nephew of Catholicos Garegin II. Two other representatives of the diocese were also arrested alongside him. They face charges, including coercing priests to participate in rallies. It can be assumed that the campaign against the Church led by Garegin II will continue until the Catholicos and his team are fully discredited in the eyes of society.

The question is why this new round of the struggle is happening precisely now. On one hand, the Church and the opposition it supports are acting in Moscow’s interests — and the closer the country gets to elections, the more actively Moscow will need to deploy this resource against Pashinyan. For that reason, this threat to Pashinyan must be neutralised in good time. On the other hand, it may be necessary to strike a decisive blow against these forces right now, while Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus has arguably fallen to a historic low.

Middle East

U.S. President Donald Trump convened leaders at the Middle East Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh to sign a peace agreement. The most curious aspect is that the warring parties themselves did not attend the summit. This, however, is understandable. Hamas is recognised as a terrorist organisation by a number of countries, including the United States, and would hardly have been allowed to participate. As for Israeli representatives, they most likely did not want to face the full measure of condescending disapproval from the Emir of Qatar and the President of Türkiye.

As a result, the final agreement was signed by U.S. President Donald Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Unlike Trump’s peace plan, the text of this agreement is fairly general and highly ceremonial, though it does contain conceptual elements. In particular, the parties welcomed not only the progress made toward establishing a comprehensive and lasting peace in Gaza but also the development of friendly and mutually beneficial relations between Israel and its regional neighbours.

It is difficult to predict how the situation will develop further. Israel is already accusing Hamas of attempting to undermine the agreements, citing delays in the return of the bodies of deceased hostages. Twenty-one bodies remain in Gaza. At the same time, Tel Aviv claims it knows their whereabouts and asserts that Hamas is fully aware of this as well.

Questions remain about how — or even whether — the next stages of Trump’s peace plan will be implemented. The key issue is what will happen with Hamas. Recall that Trump’s plan calls for the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of its members from Gaza.

It is evident that the group is preparing for a systemic reset, and Israel, intentionally or not, has aided this process by eliminating much of its leadership. Most likely, the organisation will disband and later resume activities under a different name. As for mobilising the masses, Hamas has never struggled in this regard. It is also plausible that the large number of civilian casualties in Gaza will heighten resentment among Palestinians, making the recruitment of new members relatively easy.

However, the rearmament process will now face difficulties due to the establishment of an international administrative body for the Gaza Strip. It can be assumed that Hamas’s tactic will be to wait out the remaining three years of Trump’s presidential term, tending to its wounds and shifting its activity into a purely political channel.

Ukraine – Russia

Amid relative calm on the Russian-Ukrainian front, the past week was rich in diplomatic developments. Looming over all these events like a Damoclean sword was the Tomahawk. Yes, the possibility of transferring this powerful long-range weapon, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, became another ace in the sleeve of the American president. An ace strong enough, it seems, that it prompted a telephone conversation between the leaders of the United States and Russia.

The key point confirmed by both the American and Russian sides following the call is the planned meeting of the two leaders in Budapest.

And this is very interesting. The point is that many commentators were unanimous in claiming that all potential agreements the parties could have reached in Anchorage this past summer had failed. However, as is well known, national leaders usually meet face-to-face to formalize agreements they have already negotiated in advance.

The fact that, two months after Anchorage, the two leaders are meeting again suggests that, more or less, everything is proceeding according to plan. Literally everything—even the escalation. In other words, discussions about the supply of Tomahawks and the imposition of additional sanctions are part of the range of likely events that both sides were well aware of in advance.

Put differently, in Anchorage, the talks likely covered not only what was certain to happen but also contingencies—what would occur if certain events took place—embedding a kind of programming element into the negotiation process. One way or another, it seems the parties have reached a shared understanding of the prospects for the conflict’s continuation and have already developed a set of measures for resolving it.

One can even speculate further: in reality, discussions about supplying Tomahawks may be intended to help Putin explain a forthcoming ceasefire to the Russian public. After all, there is a world of difference between ending the war without achieving the stated objectives—whether due to pressure from Washington or Ukraine’s resistance—and doing so under the threat of a potential nuclear confrontation with NATO.

Moreover, it is almost certain that, in exchange for a ceasefire, Trump will push Kyiv to forgo security guarantees—not only abandoning NATO aspirations but also rejecting the deployment of foreign peacekeeping forces, and possibly even accepting limitations on the size of its armed forces. This, in turn, would be presented by Putin as a strategic compromise with the United States.

At this historic moment, Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington. It cannot be said that Trump and his team’s attitude toward Zelenskyy had changed. The American president once again joked about Zelenskyy’s dress code and listened condescendingly to the expressions of gratitude in the Ukrainian president’s speech, fully aware that Zelenskyy was doing it merely to please him. Rubio and Vance were as grim as thunderclouds, making it clear with their very presence that their stance on the conflict had not shifted an iota.

Regarding the Tomahawks, Trump responded evasively, stating that the issue was under discussion, warning that transferring the missiles could lead to escalation. Thus, he again signalled that the Tomahawk question is not about aiding Ukraine but rather a means of pressuring Russia. Aware of this, Zelenskyy specifically emphasised that he needs not only Tomahawks but also drones.

Moreover, the Ukrainian president, seemingly understanding that the U.S. and Russian leaders are close to a deal, focused on two key points. The first is a ceasefire, aligning fully with Trump’s own priorities. The second is security guarantees. And, as I noted earlier, this is likely the very issue that Trump is unwilling to provide.

But, we shall see. The wait will not be long. According to reports, the meeting in Budapest is expected to take place soon.

These, in my view, were the most important developments of the past week. Until next time.