Armenia’s flag with cross, Biden’s canceled trip and situation in Middle East Weekly review by Caliber.Az  

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” ("Events") show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, highlighting the most important news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev participated in a meeting of the CIS Heads of State Council in Moscow. During his speech, President Aliyev expressed gratitude to his colleagues for selecting Lachin as the Cultural Capital of the CIS for 2025.

President Aliyev also emphasised the significance of Victory Day on May 9 as an important factor for enhancing cooperation among CIS member states. He highlighted Azerbaijan's role in the victory during the Great Patriotic War. The Azerbaijani leader notably avoided the topic of a peace treaty with Armenia, seemingly indicating that all has already been said on Azerbaijan’s part.

Indeed, Yerevan must eliminate the expansionist clauses in its constitution for further progress. However, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on the contrary, decided to present himself as a side fervently seeking peace. He desires peace but through Azerbaijan. Pashinyan once again put forward his dubious proposal to sign only those provisions that have already been agreed upon, reiterating his claim that the Armenian Constitution does not contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

However, the attendees listened to him with a bored expression. As opposed to the Western politicians who directly guide Yerevan, the leaders of the CIS countries had no reason to even pretend that they believe Pashinyan.

Among other developments from the Moscow event, Russian border guards will cease operations at the checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border from January 1, 2025. This decision was reached during a meeting in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Along the border, Armenian border troops will continue operating jointly with Russian border guards.

It seems that for Moscow, its military presence in Armenia is becoming a burden. As for the economic sphere, Armenia's economic dependence on Russia has grown due to the re-export of sanctioned goods. Caliber.Az has obtained new sensational data about Yerevan's military pivot toward the West.

We recommend reading the article available on Caliber.Az website, along with the corresponding video on YouTube channel. On September 30, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan met with representatives of NATO's Military Committee at the NATO's headquarters in Brussels. During these meetings, Grigoryan expressed Armenia's readiness to become NATO's "new southern flank". 

He emphasised the country's intention to support the construction of air bases in Armenia and the deployment of missile defence units. Grigoryan noted that these bases will be prepared to accommodate NATO rapid deployment forces, including land, air, and special units. Both the US and France have actively supported this initiative.

As a result of the discussions under the "Partnership for Peace" programme, a decision was made to establish a training centre for mountain infantry in southern Armenia, which will serve as a cover for the presence of NATO troops. Grigoryan also raised the issue of the so-called "occupation" of several hundred kilometres of "sovereign Armenian territory" by the Azerbaijani army, referring to the positions held by Azerbaijani forces along undelimited sections of the conditional border. 

He emphasised that Yerevan sees no possibility of reclaiming these lands through peaceful means and proposed a plan for a swift victorious war. Grigoryan noted that such a conflict would allow Armenia to seize territories for potential future exchange.

Grigoryan said that such a "victory" would help restore the morale of the Armenian army and society, while demoralising the Azerbaijani public and undermining the deeply rooted perception of the Azerbaijani military's absolute superiority. The authors of this scenario said that this would serve as an important test of the Western military equipment acquired under real combat conditions. While escalating the situation, Armenia raised a state flag featuring a cross at the conditional border with Azerbaijan. 

Taking into account that the Armenian flag does not feature a cross, this action envisages that the country is deliberately asserting a religious dimension to its division with Azerbaijan, effectively promoting a policy of religious extremism at an official level.

This action was symbolically supported by the EU's intelligence mission. Eight members of this mission, along with Armenian soldiers, closely approached the state border of Azerbaijan to monitor the Azerbaijani territories using binoculars. Some Western countries have declared a crusade against Azerbaijan. 

They appear to be preparing Armenia for what they believe will be a small victorious war. This is primarily required by Pashinyan to boost his approval ratings and maintain his hold on power, which aligns with the interests of his Western patrons as well. The "Iron Fist" is on heightened alert for hundreds, if not thousands, of Armenian soldiers to be buried in Yerablur Military Pantheon.

Ukraine - Russia

Following the capture of Vuhledar last week, the Russian army continues advancing on several fronts, primarily in the Donetsk region. There is also fierce fighting in the Kursk region, where Russian forces are attempting to reclaim territories previously held by Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

At the same time, US President Joe Biden canceled his trip to Germany and his participation in the Ramstein summit, citing the approaching Hurricane Milton as the reason for his decision.

In reality, it seems that Biden was reluctant to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy without having concrete answers regarding the Ukrainian leader's "victory plan". To do so would risk portraying himself as weak in the eyes of the American public and potentially harm the Democrats' reputation ahead of the presidential election. 

As a result, instead of a single visit to Germany, Zelenskyy made four trips to London, Paris, Rome, and Berlin, where he met with the leaders of these countries as well as with the Pope. Zelenskyy presented his "victory plan" to his counterparts and discussed ways to enhance support for Ukraine.

Earlier, Zelenskyy attended the third Ukraine–South Europe summit in Dubrovnik, where he asserted that the war should be concluded by no later than 2025. Indeed, numerous factors indicate that Ukraine is already worn down by the war and cannot sustain a protracted struggle, especially given that Moscow has more resources at its disposal. 

For a significant turnaround in favour of Kyiv, greater assistance from the West is essential, particularly permission to launch strikes with Western missiles on Russian territory—a request that the West is hesitant to grant for various reasons. Ultimately, it appears that Zelenskyy's minimum objective is to negotiate a ceasefire with minimal losses while framing it to the public as a break rather than the end of the war.

The problem is that this does not satisfy Russia. It seeks not just a pause, but some symbolic gain—such as reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—so that it can formally declare the end of the so-called special military operation. Everything indicates that the West is not inclined to significantly obstruct this goal.    

Middle East

Israel continues its ground operation in Lebanon while simultaneously preparing for a counterstrike against Iran. Last week, Tehran launched approximately two hundred ballistic missiles toward Israel, the majority of which were intercepted by air defence forces.

Potential targets for the counterstrike have been actively discussed with the Americans. It has become clear that Washington is firmly opposed to attacks on Iran's oil and nuclear facilities. 

Ultimately, it seems an agreement has been reached that strikes will be directed at the Iranian military targets. Such an escalation is bound to lead to a larger conflict sooner or later, as neither side will back down in this exchange of strikes, at least for reasons of prestige.

Even if neither side intends to escalate the scale of mutual strikes, are there any guarantees that next time Israel's air defence won't fail to intercept an Iranian missile that could hit a residential building or a barracks filled with soldiers? What will Tel Aviv's response be? What will the White House's reaction be? Just imagine that Donald Trump is in office. 

The escalation mechanism has been set in motion, and it seems that it must either reach its logical conclusion—full-scale hostilities—or reverse course, which would be possible with political changes in either Israel or Iran. At the same time, the intensity of hostilities in Gaza has sharply decreased.

In Tel Aviv, discussions are underway regarding the evacuation of the entire Gaza population to the southern part of the territory beyond the "Netzarim" Corridor, while maintaining the northern region as a security buffer zone.   In practice, this would mean even less Palestinian territories. If Arab states do not propose a joint plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, further radicalisation of its population is inevitable.