Armenia: The West's bargaining chip and Minsk's warning Expert insights

Armenia’s policy of double standards and escalating tensions in the South Caucasus is raising alarms even in Minsk. In a recent interview in Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko warned Armenia’s leadership against playing dangerous games with the European Union. He criticized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, urging him to calm down, as his actions could lead to the destruction of Armenia. “He is also turning Russia against him. He is surrounded by enemies. The territory is small, the population isn’t large, and he has surrounded himself with enemies. He needs to be pacified,” Lukashenko warned.

Lukashenko continued, expressing his concerns about the potential for conflict in the region, emphasizing that Belarus has always supported common sense and peace, and he urged Armenia not to provoke war in the Caucasus. The question arises: what prompted the Belarusian president to issue such a strong critique of Pashinyan? Caliber.Az’s correspondent spoke to foreign experts to explore the reasons behind Lukashenko's remarks.

According to Kirill Koktysh, a professor at MGIMO and an expert on the Union State's policy, President Lukashenko’s statement directed at Armenia’s leadership is largely influenced by the context of Belarus' own political struggles. Koktysh argues that during the Belarusian elections, Western powers sought to destabilize the situation in the country, aiming to influence and control the political processes. 

"In general, there were some illusions in Minsk about the West, perhaps even before 2020, but now they are simply gone, and Belarus views the West with a completely sober and pragmatic perspective, standing firm on its own feet," said the political analyst.

"Much has changed in the South Caucasus as well. Lukashenko is observing what is happening in Georgia, the attempts to spark a revolution in that country, and he understands that the post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus, is needed by the West to turn it into a problem for Russia. The Georgian elites, demonstrating responsibility, maturity, and an understanding of the coordinates of the system, managed to keep their country from catastrophe. For this, Tbilisi deserves praise. We see how Georgia is reclaiming its sovereignty, which was practically nonexistent at one point. Against this backdrop, it is especially noticeable that the current leadership of Armenia is leading the country towards the loss of its sovereignty, turning it into a bargaining chip," the political scientist remarked.

In his view, considering Washington's intention to address the Iranian issue in the near future, this could have very serious consequences for the entire region.

"Thus, it is clear that Armenia's territory could very well be used for confrontation with Iran. Moreover, there is the temptation to take advantage of the current situation, when Iran's positions in the Middle East have significantly weakened. All of this could mean the likelihood of a very large regional war, in which Armenia may play a role very different from what Armenian society expects. In fact, this is exactly what Lukashenko’s statement regarding Pashinyan is based on," noted Koktysh.

According to Belarusian political analyst and chief expert at the Center for Analytical Forecasting, Alexei Chernov, Minsk perceives Yerevan’s actions as a threat to regional stability. Chernov suggests that if this were not the case, President Lukashenko would not have made such strong statements.

"It is clear that Yerevan is determined to live and act according to the West’s instructions, to become a gateway, or perhaps even something more, for the deployment of Western military contingents in the region. Finding a gap in the consolidation of countries like Russia and Belarus is a key goal for today’s West, and Armenia is clearly playing along, offering itself as a tool in this Western strategy. Interestingly, Lukashenko has no illusions about Pashinyan's actions, despite Mirzoyan’s trip to Moscow and Pashinyan’s conversation with Putin: all of this does not remove the level of threat that Yerevan generates in the South Caucasus region and the entire post-Soviet space.

By the way, Lukashenko responded to the accusations made by Pashinyan back in June 2024, claiming that Minsk allegedly helped Azerbaijan during the 44-day war. I believe the response was very clear and understandable, and Pashinyan will no longer raise any questions on this topic," said Chernov.