Armenian dance with constitution and slide into revanchism Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

In a recent televised address, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called on the citizens of the country to defend the interests of the state and its people, rather than the dispersed Armenian nation around the world. To this end, he proposed amending the country's constitution and holding a referendum to vote on a new version of the fundamental law. However, Pashinyan did not mention whether the territorial claims against Azerbaijan would be removed from Armenia’s constitution—this is precisely the issue that Baku sees as the main obstacle to further dialogue with Armenia.

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Belarusian political scientist and candidate of political sciences Svetlana Korniichenko noted that Pashinyan's rhetorical appeal to the Armenian public, proposing changes to the state and constitution, is merely a new attempt by the Armenian prime minister to strengthen his political position within the country, as well as those of his allies in parliament.

“Polls show that Pashinyan's approval rating is significantly dropping, and public trust in him is low, which is linked to a variety of factors. The Armenian people are tired of the Prime Minister’s loud declarations, many of which turn out to be nothing but empty promises. This is primarily connected to the worsening economic situation in the country, although Pashinyan had promised drastic changes just a few years ago. His attempt to completely change the political course of the country is now yielding negative results – it is unclear what will happen to Armenians living and working in Russia once Armenia fully exits the  Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Many families who rely on income from Russia fear such changes, as it would be a blow and a shock to them.

On the other hand, Pashinyan's promises to open the border with Türkiye and restart trade also turn out to be bluffing. Türkiye is only willing to take this step if Yerevan agrees on all points of a peace deal with Baku and also agrees to open the Zangezur Corridor. Many Armenians realize that their government is setting its course for regional isolation and is not taking serious positive geopolitical actions. Meanwhile, the Armenian people are suffering and, without delving too much into the intricacies of political games, are simply waiting for the borders to open and trade to resume.

The third factor is the noticeable decline in Armenia's political authority, linked to the departure of the Biden team and the weakening of Macron's position within France. It seems that Macron is currently more focused on addressing electoral trust issues in France than on Yerevan.

Therefore, Pashinyan's rhetorical appeal is merely an attempt to initiate the process of early parliamentary elections, in which, according to his plans, his loyal political forces should win by a large margin, solidifying his position in the country for the coming years. However, Pashinyan doesn’t seem to be inclined to significantly change Armenia's course towards improving relations with Azerbaijan, including through constitutional amendments,” believes S. Korniichenko.

According to Kazakh political scientist Ruslan Salikhov, Pashinyan has organized a new show to shake up his electorate.

“What’s concerning is that Pashinyan refuses to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the constitution. On the contrary, Yerevan constantly makes excuses on this matter. Last year, Armenia's Constitutional Court ruled that the content of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution are not identical, and therefore, there are no territorial claims against Azerbaijan’s integrity in the constitution, and Baku needn’t worry. Now, Pashinyan has staged a new political performance for Armenian voters to inject some dynamics into the domestic political agenda, attract the electorate, without changing anything drastically for the people or addressing his differences with Azerbaijan.

On the contrary, Pashinyan is increasingly sliding into revanchism, evidently hoping for support from France and other European countries, which inevitably irritates Baku. Unfortunately, the destabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus continues,” summarized Salikhov.