Azerbaijan playing for high stakes as France supplying Armenia with modern weapons Eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth

As Baku and Paris have revealed their cards with aggressive cut-throat diplomatic moves, exploiting all available avenues at hand, Azerbaijan is showing its mettle without shying away from a fight, no matter how powerful the adversary is, in concert with determination to rain on France’s parade in the South Caucasus.

When you ponder on aggressive French diplomacy with elements of coercion and compellence against Azerbaijan, the first thing that comes to mind is that apparently, the view of the South Caucasus from the Elysée Palace looks like this - the strategic region with two centuries-long Russian dominance is now slipping out of Moscow’s hands and needs a big brother. And the rift expanding day-by-day in Yerevan-Moscow relations, coupled with Armenia’s amicable relations with France, Paris believes it merits the goal of establishing itself as a new kingmaker in the war-torn region.

With Europe's biggest war since WWII raging between Russia and Ukraine, France is eyeing new regions to step in with new guarantees, and Armenia, branded as Moscow's outpost, at odds with its epoch-long boss, is ready to embrace Paris's pleasing-to-the-ear vows that are not destined to be realizable.

France's abject failure in Africa compels the Macron government to compensate for the losses, and with the backing of the largest Armenian diaspora, Paris is advancing its own narrative without realizing the danger of the game for Armenia, and heartened by Macron's policies, Yerevan continues harbouring enmity towards Turkey and plotting to avenge Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's brilliant victory in the second Karabakh war of 2020 constrained the Macron government to unmask itself and shed light on the fruitless 30-year-long co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Group, designed to facilitate a solution to the Karabakh problem. Now that Azerbaijan has resolved the conflict militarily, and has no raison d'etre for France's neo-imperial ambitions in the South Caucasus, efforts see no end to wreak havoc in the region and torpedo Baku's endeavours to re-establish long-awaited peace.

Notorious in Azerbaijan's eyes for its outright pro-Armenian stance, Paris keeps triggering a plethora of questions – the crux of which is why France with neo-colonial policies and ambitions is stepping on a minefield, promising inglorious defeat.

France as a regional troublemaker

France has long been Armenians’ backer but Macron's France has been going the extra mile, rallying all-out international support for Yerevan's aggressive policies, indirectly justifying the 30-year-long occupation of Azerbaijani lands by trying hard to blackmail Azerbaijan through international organizations to have toothless resolutions.

France has now switched to a new phase, i.e., inked a military deal to provide Armenia with weapons, and Defense Minister Suren Papikyan was already in Paris on October 23 to sign the military contract.

For outright reasons, defeated Armenia gave no details of the deal, though it is obvious that Armenia will obtain Mistral short-range surface-to-air missiles and three GM200 radar systems. France will also train Armenian officers to operate procured military equipment and assist in ongoing reforms of the Armenian armed forces. Notwithstanding France's allegations that the weapons are of a defensive nature, France's main goal is to ensure the use of the weapons against Azerbaijan in a possible war and Paris with overt and covert policies to play havoc in the region.

Mistral short-range air defence systems are effective in shooting down UAVs along with downing helicopters and jets, and the GM200, on the other hand, acts as a gap-filler for air control or as a sensor for an air defence system. The GM200 has also missile, artillery, and mortar warning capabilities.

Azerbaijan is top-notch at exploiting UAVs and the second Karabakh war as well as the October 19-20, 2023, anti-terror operation to hunt down the remnants of the separatists in the region once again displayed and enriched this expertise. This confirms that France gave the mentioned weapons systems to Armenia for a possible war against Azerbaijan.

Military experts are confident the GM200 radars and Mistral short-range air defence systems will beef up the Armenian army’s capacity and Paris’ misbalancing acts will further deteriorate relations between France and Azerbaijan and hit rock bottom.

Baku acts smartly

France believes the weapons sale to Armenia will weaken Azerbaijan's determination to bring peace to the region and realize ambitious global and regional projects. However, Baku's response to Paris is more efficient and dangerous. Time bombs, planted under Paris's lifelong ambitions of retaining global colonies and adding new ones, are now going off.

The conduct of a series of international events and conferences in Azerbaijan as NAM chairman and in other capacities proved Baku's adherence to soft power to counterbalance France’s anti-Azerbaijani policies.

On October 20, 2023, an international conference “Neo-colonialism: Human Rights Violations and Injustice” organized by the Baku Initiative Group, a special platform dedicated to exposing the existing elements of France’s colonial policy, was spectacular.

Representatives of the countries and territories facing the modern twist of French colonialism and human rights violations, i.e., neo-colonial aspirations of France inherited from its bloody imperial legacy in Africa and Pacific and Oceanian territories - Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Mali, as well as Corsica, New Caledonia, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and France and the United Kingdom, attended the congress.

As a move to cement the efficiency of policies, Baku after the event set up a group to support the fundamental rights and freedoms of the Corsican people to communicate the fair demands of the people of Corsica to the global community and unite international efforts to struggle against the devastating consequences of French colonialism.

Baku's support for the self-determination of New Caledonia, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Corsica is a strategic and visionary step. This step taken by Baku is more serious compared to the military equipment and weapons that France gave to Armenia against Azerbaijan.

What are the major takeaways?

It is possible that Paris wants to show that France is also an empire that has influence in the South Caucasus. However, it plays on only Armenia’s field in the region. France is also at odds with Turkey, not only in the South Caucasus but in the south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. Paris supports Greece and wants to minimize Turkey’s regional influence in this part of the Mediterranean Sea.

In the South Caucasus, France finds its niche in Armenia and now trying to gain a foothold there, supporting not only Yerevan but also Iran - albeit in a somewhat veiled manner. At the same time, Paris does not in any way contribute in practice to reconciliation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples, but, on the contrary, sets itself the opposite task.

Armenia’s involvement in the French sphere of influence is part of the Macron administration’s ambitious project to create its own regional security system, and, of course, is caused by the need to somehow smooth out or compensate for Paris's catastrophic situation in Africa.

However, their results are scant. Supplies of military equipment seem distant as the Armenians cannot afford top-notch French technology, while France has reportedly exhausted most of its weapons provided them for Ukraine's military needs and has not yet increased its capacity

Paris's anti-Azerbaijani stance has not led to any tangible political action other than a few toothless resolutions from the politically irrelevant European Parliament. In the real trade in arms and training, Iran and Russia are at the center of events. Iran has reportedly sold several drones and sent military trainers to Armenia.

Against this background, the agreement signed is the first step, and it is not an exception that France will provide offensive weapons to Armenia at a later stage. Paris is currently supplying Armenia with offensive weapons through India. The Trayan self-propelled artillery systems to be sent by India to Armenia were solved due to French political support and funding. These systems are developed jointly with the partners of the French company Nexter Systems in India.

France’s short-sighted, toxic, obstructive policies increase the risk of military tension in the South Caucasus and push Armenia to retract from signing a peace deal under various pretexts. However, right now it is 2023 outside, and Azerbaijan has the upper hand with a strong army in the protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity, coupled with strong national solidarity and will to benefit from the current global developments that will inevitably reshape the geopolitical situation for many years to come. Good luck, Azerbaijan!