Baku sets conditions: The path to genuine peace requires tangible steps No illusions

Armenia appears to believe that a peace treaty can be signed without first fulfilling Azerbaijan’s key demands. This conclusion can be drawn from reports about the completion of negotiations on the text of the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that after the signing of the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there would be no need for a mediation format, particularly the OSCE Minsk Group: "Once the peace treaty is signed, it will be possible to consider, at an institutional level, that the conflict has come to an end, and it will be possible to state that there is no need for a mediation format."

His statements make it clear: Armenia has no intention of discussing the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group before signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, instead continuing to stall and divert the conversation. The Armenian side is actively engaging in political populism, as confirmed by the latest statements from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

During discussions on the ideology of a "real Armenia," he made yet another vague statement: "The new Constitution is not being drafted at Azerbaijan’s request—it will have regional significance. The thesis I proposed about a new Constitution has been widely debated and was presented as fulfilling a demand put forward by Azerbaijan. In reality, within the framework of the ideology of a 'real Armenia,' it has a completely different meaning," Pashinyan noted without going into details.

This most likely indicates preparations for a nationwide referendum, followed by the adoption of a new Constitution. The issue has been actively discussed in Armenia’s domestic political agenda since January 2024. Throughout this period, Pashinyan has been promoting the "real Armenia" project and gradually preparing society for its implementation. In early March, addressing the public, he once again emphasized the need to adopt a new Constitution through a referendum.

It is evident that Pashinyan is seeking broad public support on this matter. It is expected that the new Constitution may exclude territorial claims against Azerbaijan. He likely understands that further delays on this issue are becoming meaningless.

Moreover, the absence of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan could result in Armenia losing significant trade and economic opportunities linked to the unblocking of regional transport routes. It would also automatically put an end to any prospects for normalising relations with Türkiye.

At the same time, Pashinyan is desperate to hold onto power. This explains his push for militarisation—an attempt to strengthen his position domestically. However, his inconsistent policies effectively play into the hands of radicalised circles, continuing to fuel illusions about Karabakh.

All these factors indicate that Yerevan seeks to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan purely as a formality, using it as a cover to persist with its militarisation and aggressive policies. It is no coincidence that Armenia is rapidly expanding its military-technical cooperation with France and India. This is precisely why Baku has every reason to distrust the Armenian authorities’ statements about their commitment to peace. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made this clear and unequivocal during the opening ceremony of the 12th Global Baku Forum. The head of state emphasised that Azerbaijan is tired of empty words and demands real actions from Yerevan.

“The level of trust in Armenia is close to zero. So, we do not trust any of their words. Because they are not the people who we can trust, including today’s government. Again, all that they say, for us, has zero meaning. We need documents; we need papers. We need their constitution to be free of territorial claims against Azerbaijan. It still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. We need the OSCE Minsk Group to be dissolved. We convey this message to Armenia, saying that there is no logic in keeping the Minsk Group. It was created to address the issue of Karabakh. Now Karabakh is done. Armenia recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Why don’t you join us in a joint application to the OSCE to dissolve it? They don’t want. So, they want to keep ‘a part of their feet’ on the ground, on our territory, now virtually, of course. Their military build-up - what does it demonstrate? It demonstrates that they are preparing for a new war,” said President Aliyev.

Indeed, the logic behind Yerevan's actions, amidst growing revanchist sentiments and the intensification of Armenia's militarisation, suggests that the region may face a new escalation. Last week, the Armenian government announced the holding of another reserve forces assembly from April 1 to June 13, which is also seen as preparation for an escalation.

Against this backdrop, while continuing to position itself as the "dove of peace," Armenia does not cease its diplomatic attacks against Azerbaijan. This is facilitated by biased resolutions of an anti-Azerbaijani nature, adopted in the European Parliament as well as in the parliaments of Belgium and Sweden.

President Ilham Aliyev addressed this issue in his speech: "We have raised this issue with Armenian representatives and with their new bosses in Brussels. Because now they have changed the big brother; and today it's Brussels."

In every message, President Ilham Aliyev conveyed the core idea: Azerbaijan consistently adheres to the peace agenda and expects specific actions from Armenia in response. On the path to an actual peace agreement, Yerevan must halt militarisation, amend its constitution, advocate for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, establish a demilitarised zone along the border with Azerbaijan, and open the Zangezur Corridor. All of this must be done before the peace agreement is signed. Otherwise, once again, we would have a truncated peace treaty, which Baku will never agree to.

In any case, Azerbaijan has outlined its conditions for peace. Whether Armenia desires this peace will be revealed by time.