Georgia as a battlefield for France’s interests? Opposition with a “French accent”

The Georgian opposition and former President Salome Zourabichvili have seized the occasion of the 104th anniversary of Georgia's occupation by the Red Army to remind the public of their presence. A protest march has been announced for today, February 25, against what Salome Zourabichvili calls a "new occupation"—referring to the rule of the Georgian Dream party. The opposition's slogans and demands remain unchanged—early elections. However, there have been some shifts in the "geopolitical alignments" of opposition leaders.

Despite Salome Zourabichvili’s recent attempts to showcase her "closeness" to Donald Trump, even securing a meeting with him in Paris with the help of French President Emmanuel Macron, opposition supporters on social media have recently been gripped by an unprecedented wave of "Trumpophobia." They have begun to denounce and curse Donald Trump, accusing him of "betraying Ukraine"—a reference to the Georgian opposition's interpretation of the U.S. president's intention to end the war between Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible.

After the President of Ukraine engaged in a verbal dispute with Donald Trump, Georgian opposition leaders made it clear that they stand with Zelenskyy. "Zelenskyy is the leader of the civilized world, someone who is transforming politics from being focused on influence and economy to being centred on people," wrote Nika Gvaramia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change, on his Facebook page.

It is evident that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who lacks sufficient resources even for Ukraine, cannot offer much tangible support to the Georgian opposition. By expressing solidarity with the current Ukrainian leader at a time when he is in conflict with the U.S. president, the pro-Western opposition is effectively "cutting itself off" from U.S. State Department support.

While the opposition has become "disillusioned" with Donald Trump, it has placed even greater hopes on France and Emmanuel Macron—just like those who advocate for the continuation of the war in Ukraine at any cost. Although Macron publicly claims to seek a "just, lasting, and sustainable peace in Ukraine," in reality, he spent the past week attempting to assemble a "European coalition" to ensure the war continues indefinitely should U.S. military support for Kyiv cease.

At the same time, the Georgian opposition is now openly positioning itself as a "French proxy." In this context, an interview given by former Defense Minister Irakli Alasania to the Georgian service of Radio Liberty is particularly revealing. He stated that with France’s assistance, Georgia could have had a fully developed air defence system by 2021, but the ruling Georgian Dream party and its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, sabotaged the agreement with Paris.

Irakli Alasania, who served as Georgia’s Minister of Defence in the Georgian Dream government from 2012 to 2014, stated that during his tenure, an agreement with France had already been reached. However, the Georgian Dream government pressured him not to sign it.

Alasania specifically recalled that in 2013, he met with then-French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who requested that Georgia send troops to the Central African Republic. In return, France agreed to supply Georgia with an air defence system under a credit agreement. Paris appeared to have devised quite a "business model"—first using Georgians as "cannon fodder" in its former African colonies and then, inevitably, in other geopolitical ventures.

According to Alasania’s recollections, a day before the memorandum was set to be signed, a high-ranking Georgian official called him and told him not to proceed. He claimed that the pressure came from Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling party, who by then was no longer prime minister. Despite the pressure, Alasania did not abandon the memorandum, which was intended to lead to an agreement on the procurement of French air defence systems. He also noted that just as he was about to sign the contract, five employees of the Ministry of Defence were arrested—an act he believes was an attempt to derail the deal.

According to Irakli Alasania, the signed memorandum, which was supposed to lead to an air defence agreement, "is still valid today." "The window remains open," he noted, calling Georgian Dream’s decision to block the agreement an "unforgivable mistake." Had the ruling party signed the deal, "our defence capabilities and security would have been much better protected," Alasania added.

This raises the question: does Georgia truly face "critical issues" with its defence capabilities without French air defence systems and without "French leadership" in its national policy? Such leadership would have been inevitable had Georgia become dependent on military supplies from Paris. Alasania attempts to frame the situation as if the French air defence deal was sabotaged due to "Russian interference." But would these air defence systems really have enabled tiny Georgia to resist the Russian military machine much longer or more effectively than it did in August 2008?

Given that Irakli Alasania’s interview coincided almost exactly with Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to "assemble a European coalition" to support Ukraine’s "endless war" against Russia—contrary to Trump’s current intentions—it all falls into place. Essentially, Alasania and the leaders of Georgia’s pro-Western opposition regret that Georgia, at Paris’s behest, cannot be dragged into war and open a "second front." The fact that such a war—one that has already brought immense suffering and destruction to Ukraine—would be catastrophic for small Georgia does not seem to concern those dreaming of a French protectorate over Tbilisi.

Strangely, while lamenting Georgia’s lack of French air defence systems, Alasania failed to mention that the same France is now actively arming neighbouring Armenia, including supplying air defence systems against Azerbaijan—a fraternal country and strategic partner of Georgia. As early as February 2024, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, during his visit to Yerevan, met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Defence Minister Suren Papikyan, declaring France’s readiness to provide Armenia with short-, medium-, and long-range air defence systems. Prior to that, there was a scandal involving the delivery of French Bastion armoured vehicles to Armenia via Georgian territory. Following public outrage over Georgia’s de facto involvement in Armenia’s military ventures, the arms transit was halted.

It is not difficult to deduce that if France had established an air defence system for Georgia and supplied it with weaponry, Georgia would have had no choice but to allow French military transit for Armenia. Moreover, this would have effectively placed Georgia’s and Armenia’s air defence systems under unified French control. In the event of a revanchist war initiated by Yerevan, Georgia would inevitably be dragged into the conflict—against its own national interests. Georgia’s current exclusion from France’s military plans primarily serves as an obstacle to Armenia’s militarisation and the realisation of its aggressive revanchist ambitions.

Thus, today, the Georgian opposition and Salome Zourabichvili are fighting to turn the country into a geopolitical appendage of France—one that could ultimately destroy Georgia by entangling it in military adventures for the sake of Paris and its favoured allies in the Caucasus: Armenian nationalists. However, such plans are entirely alien to the interests of the Georgian people. The marginalisation and dwindling size of opposition protests serve as a telling indicator of this reality.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, exclusively for Caliber.Az