"Greeting" to Moscow from sunny Yerevan Pashinyan gets rid of Russian dependence

Today, August 28, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made two statements at once that can safely be called historic for the country's foreign policy.

In the first, he noted that simultaneous membership in the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is impossible, and sooner or later, Yerevan will have to make a final choice. In the second, he stated that returning to the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020, makes no sense, as the document now belongs to the past.

In essence, the Armenian prime minister openly acknowledged what has long been obvious: Armenia faces a choice that will determine its future. And, apparently, Yerevan has opted for a gradual distancing from Russian influence—a move that was not just expected but also entirely logical.

For the past few decades, Armenia has lived in a state of significant dependence on Moscow. This is confirmed by several factors:

1. A Russian military base is still located in Gyumri.

2. Russian border guards control Armenia’s borders.

3. Membership in the EAEU was the result of political pressure and blackmail: Serzh Sargsyan was forced to abandon the European integration path and capitulate to Kremlin ultimatums.

Thus, Armenia effectively lost many attributes of an independent state, finding itself in the position of a vassal of Moscow. Many still remember how several Russian politicians openly and with evident disregard referred to Armenia as “Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus.” And, in essence, they were right.

Now the situation is changing, and leaving the EAEU is becoming an increasingly likely scenario. However, the path to European Union membership will be long and challenging: Armenia is deeply integrated into post-Soviet political and economic structures, and its internal institutional weakness hinders rapid progress in European integration. In any case, Pashinyan today clearly outlined Armenia’s foreign policy priorities—away from Russia!

As for the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020, it has, as the Armenian prime minister rightly noted, long ceased to exist. Moscow, by any measure, failed to fulfil its obligations, thereby acknowledging the ineffectiveness of its own guarantees. And it does not matter what reasons compelled Russia to take this step.

Overall, today Yerevan and Baku share the same position: neither side is interested in Russian mediation, and the reason is clear—Moscow wants not peace, but war. For decades, Russia exploited the Karabakh conflict, using it as a tool to control Armenia and exert pressure on Azerbaijan.

This strategy has now completely failed. This is primarily due to Azerbaijan’s historic victory in the 44-day war of autumn 2020 and the brilliantly executed anti-terrorist operation in the Karabakh region in September 2023. The Azerbaijani state has fully restored its sovereignty and territorial integrity, which, to put it mildly, was received in Russia with horror.

However, Moscow attempted to seize its last chance to retain some influence over Yerevan and Baku. But this is an illusion. Azerbaijan has firmly and consistently demonstrated its ability to implement its foreign policy doctrine, regardless of Russia’s plans and expectations.

And today, Moscow received a “greeting” from sunny Yerevan—Armenia is moving toward liberation from Russian dependence. This path will be difficult and contradictory, but the country has no other choice.