How could a truncated peace treaty ignite a new South Caucasus war? Warning signs

Pashinyan continues to muddy the waters around the peace treaty with Azerbaijan. On one hand, he proclaims his readiness to sign the agreement “even today,” while on the other, he proposes a watered-down peace deal, presenting terms that are clearly unacceptable to Baku.

Experts and political scientists from CIS countries shared their perspectives on the situation with Caliber.Az.

Kyrgyz political scientist Umar Mutaliyev, a candidate of political sciences, believes that Pashinyan has started a multi-faceted game and plans to adjust to the world centres of power, pleasing both. And he is using the negotiations with Azerbaijan as a bargaining chip, a kind of political currency to win bonuses for himself.

“There is no sense that Pashinyan is playing for the future of the Armenian nation, even if we assume that, as some analysts claim, he is deliberately throwing provocative slogans into the media space, ostensibly to deceive the attention of the revanchists. But Pashinyan has been testing Azerbaijan's patience for too long.

Of course, the fact that Pashinyan is in no mood at all to conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is evidenced by a number of factors, namely, open and close military-technical cooperation with the United States, France, and India, the purpose of which is to increase tension in the South Caucasus. This was recently pointed out by President Ilham Aliyev, who accused Armenia of preparing for a new war.

I believe that Pashinyan's proposals to sign a peace treaty with unresolved clauses are aimed only at deceiving Azerbaijan, signing an incomplete document, and then continuing to prepare for war, waving as an argument a piece of paper that means nothing, although signed by the parties.

"However, one key aspect of Pashinyan’s cunning plan will likely undermine all his hopes—Moscow will not allow Yerevan to slip from its influence. Sooner or later, Armenia is set to become a battleground for major global powers. In every possible scenario, Pashinyan is destined for an unenviable fate," emphasized Umar Mutaliyev.

Meanwhile, Russian journalist and political scientist Kirill Sitnikov stated that all of Pashinyan’s proposals indicate one thing: the Armenian Prime Minister is in a hurry to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and is extremely eager to do so as quickly as possible.

“One might wonder why Pashinyan is in such a hurry. It’s evident that a truncated, unresolved agreement could easily lead to a new war. This situation resembles a marketplace scenario where a seller tries to push a subpar product onto a customer, seeking to get something in return just to quickly close up shop and escape to another market where the profits are significantly higher and more rewarding."

"It is clear that Pashinyan is relying on the promises of his new partners, who are offering him incentives for a hastily signed, incomplete peace treaty with Baku. This move will allow the West to initiate a new phase of conflict in the region and heighten tensions with Russia. Ultimately, Pashinyan is likely to become a pawn in a larger geopolitical game; however, he seems to harbour unrealistic expectations about this situation, which are unlikely to materialize," Sitnikov stated.