Iran’s drone manufacturing strives despite long-term sanctions Tehran is making inroads into defence markets

After decades of importing defence equipment for domestic use by security and military forces, Iran has developed a robust drone industry. By the fall of 2022, Tehran had also exported drones or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven proxy militias in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, its most prominent regional proxy group.

The rapidly growing drone sector attracted wide attention from Western countries, while the top Iranian general stated that 22 countries are requesting to buy Iranian drones.

Although drone technology is not a new phenomenon in Iran's defence sector, its usage is limited due to the lack of sophisticated defence technology and the internationally imposed sanctions on Tehran. Simultaneously, US intelligence reports claim Iran fielded the largest arsenal of drones and missiles in the Middle East. Therefore, it is safe to note that initially, Iran developed a national drone program to diversify its air forces and provide critical assistance to proxy forces in the immediate neighbourhood when necessary. Thus, for many years, Iran avoided the proliferation of its drone technology to countries abroad to anger the Western allies.

However, the shifting geopolitical landscape in Eurasia and the Middle East, such as heightening sectarian wars, Israel's strengthening military power, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, forced Tehran to adjust its drone policy accordingly. Indeed, Russia's tactical losses in Ukraine and rising casualties made Iran's Shahid and Mohajer drones viable options for Moscow to inflict harsh casualties on Kyiv. Thus, Russia quickly became the biggest client of Iranian drones, with other countries in Latin America and Africa following suit.

Since 2022, Tehran has delivered hundreds of Shahed-136 loitering munitions to Moscow. Russia has used them for attacks against Ukraine's electricity grid and cities. According to The Wall Street Journal, in early 2023, a high-level Iranian delegation visited an empty site in the Russian town of Yelabuga, where they plan on building a factory for manufacturing up to 6,000 drones. The Russia-based factory remains on the drawing board for now and probably won't begin churning out any new and improved Shaheds anytime soon. Nevertheless, it will be larger when finished than any other drone production facility Iran has established abroad.

As a result, the Moscow-Tehran geopolitical axis has grown drastically while opening more space for a comprehensive defence partnership in light of the Ukraine war. Moreover, the growing perspectives of its drone field motivated Iran to seek new clients beyond the region and safe zones to set up new drone factories, enabling it to avoid the radar of Israeli intelligence.

In this vein, Belarus, another close ally of Russia, expressed willingness to host an Iranian drone factory on its soil. Both sides are reportedly negotiating the specific details of the upcoming agreement. If successful, Iran will build another factory in the southeastern Gomel Region, which borders Ukraine just north of the Dnipro’s “Sea of Kyiv” reservoir. In line with it, on July 31, 2023, Belarus Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin arrived in Iran on July 31 and met with Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani to sign a Memorandum of Understanding and a plan for bilateral military cooperation for 2023.

Undoubtedly, the Belarus government's interest in the Iranian drone factory is hardly a self-initiative but the result of the Russian intelligence's hard work. The reason is that Russia faced severe logistical problems in transferring the Iranian drones from Iran to Russia, and Belarus’s geographical proximity to Russia and Ukraine will ease the transportation of kamikaze drones efforts and save more time.

Iran’s outreach to Russia, Belarus and Middle Eastern countries paved the way for new defence markets overseas, namely Latin America. Countries like Venezuela and recently Bolivia confirmed their intentions to purchase Iranian-made kamikaze drones to boost the military capabilities of their armed forces. Bolivia’s defence minister confirmed his country's interest in acquiring Iranian drones days after he visited Tehran for a bilateral meeting on July 20 to strike a new agreement. Bolivia’s dialogue with Iran came amid the head of the Iranian land forces commander, Brig. Gen. Kioumars Heydari, saying “Tehran is ready to export weapons and military equipment to friendly countries, and its drones are already “being operated far away and beyond our borders.”

As Venezuela, Iran and Russia facilitated the outsourcing of Iranian drone production to Caracas in 2022, while the country’s state-owned flag carrier Conviasa Airlines is heavily involved in Iran’s global illicit arms network, operating a joint venture with Mahan Air, the Iranian carrier that doubles as a logistical arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran’s drone program has increasingly concerned its regional rivals. Despite sanctions, Tehran has produced a range of machines for both surveillance and offensive operations. Nevertheless, Tehran still lags behind its neighbours like Türkiyein terms of equipment with modern defence technology. Despite technical and financial shortages, Iran's drone program is the main trigger point behind regional tensions in the greater Middle East region.