Is Anthony Blinken’s trip to Central Asia a signal of Russia’s waning influence? A new front is on the horizon

This week, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will visit the Central Asian region for the first time in this role, touting the benefits of cooperation for regional nations with deep ties to Washington's arch-foes Russia and China. The top US diplomat will hold talks with Kazakhstan's leader, president Tokayev in the capital Astana before meeting Uzbekistan's president Mirzoyev in the capital Tashkent, on his way to a meeting of a Group of 20 foreign ministers in New Delhi.

Secretary Blinken’s vis-à-vis meeting with Central Asian officials comes within the framework of the C5+1 format against the backdrop of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is also a part of the US's continuous diplomatic activity to rally the world to oppose Russia's invasion of Ukraine that began in 2022.

However, the meeting with Central Asian states will not be as smooth as expected, given the recent UN General Assembly resolution calling on Russia to end the war and leave Ukraine. While the resolution was overwhelmingly approved — 141 to 7 — among the 32 abstentions were all five Central Asian states and India, the destinations of Blinken's upcoming trip. Undoubtedly, Washington apprehends the uneasy and complex relations of all regional states, including India with Russia and China, key regional stakeholders in the vitally important region.

Although those states did not vocally oppose Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, public opinion sharply turned out anti-Russian, thus contributing to Moscow's diminishing influence. In a broader context, the conflict has roiled Moscow's relations with Central Asia's five former Soviet republics, who have been emboldened to stand up to Russia by their new-found leverage as it looks to their markets and trade routes in a bid to circumvent Western sanctions. Moreover, Russia still maintains enough power to destabilise the region, particularly in the security field.

Therefore, Secretary Blinken will be looking to draw a line under how our engagement is different from the engagement of Moscow and Beijing. At this point, the US needs to possess strong leverage or a foothold in the region, though it is able to offer economic benefits and better conditions for trade engagement with wealthy European nations. The fact that nearly all Central Asian nations and India dispatched several humanitarian aids to the war-ravaged Ukraine created a favourable ground for deeper economic cooperation with the Western countries.

Simply put, Secretary Blinken is not tasked with pushing the countries of Central Asia, or the Indo-Pacific, to choose between the United States and Russia and China but explore new ways of cooperation amid Russia's waning influence. Nonetheless, this will not be easy, as Central Asian states preferred to stick with traditional balanced diplomacy, with president Tokayev dubbing Russia "a strategic partner" during his most recent visit to Moscow.

In this vein, it is also fair to note that the US has been on shaky ground in Central Asia for a while, notably when president Joe Biden assumed office in 2020. The gradual disengagement of the US from the post-Soviet region gave the green light to Moscow and Beijing's assertive policy. Hence, despite some obstacles, the Biden administration seemed keen to make additional inroads in the region and boost its image to tackle Russian influence.

The Ukraine war caused acute economic problems in Central Asia, and the US took some initiatives to alleviate the consequences. In Kazakhstan, for example, the US has issued a license to smooth the export of Kazakh oil via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, which runs through Russia. The US and the EU agreed on importing more Kazakh crude oil amid energy shortages, but through the Caspian Sea to bypass Russia’s territories, thus targeting Moscow’s war machine.

Indeed, Secretary Blinken's visit to Central Asia is of critical importance for the US regional interests, particularly shortly before his attendance at the G20 meeting of foreign ministers with the attendance of Chinese and Russian foreign ministers. Hence, it will be interesting to monitor how Blinken will attempt to navigate the US interests in a highly fragile region like Central Asia amid global security cataclysms.