Is Armenia moving away from European illusions? Yerevan is wavering, Moscow is pressuring

It seems that Armenia is beginning to realize the lack of prospects for its plans to join the EU. Armenian media reports that the discussion of a bill, which was supposed to initiate the country's accession process to the EU, has been postponed. This decision was made this week at a meeting of the parliamentary commission on European integration. The reason for the delay in discussing the bill was the preamble, which provides a political assessment of Armenia's aspiration to join the European Union. The authors of the document did not offer any explanations regarding its content.

From the perspective of international relations, such a formality is not a valid reason to suspend discussions on a matter directly related to the state's foreign policy course. It is more likely that official Yerevan intends to delay the European integration process for an extended period. There are also additional nuances influencing the situation.

Firstly, Armenia is geographically distant from the borders of the European Union, which has already postponed the admission of even the Balkan countries that directly border the EU. As of today, nine states are officially candidates for EU membership: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, Türkiye, and Montenegro. Armenia lags significantly behind these countries in economic and political terms and is not prepared to fulfill all the obligations required for EU membership.

Moreover, the EU is not currently in a position to accept Armenia—a country facing serious economic challenges—into its ranks.

Secondly, despite its constant glances toward the West, Armenia remains financially and economically dependent on the Eurasian Economic Union, primarily on Russia. This is evident from the trade turnover between Armenia and Russia, which reached $12 billion in 2024. Armenian exports have increased tenfold since 2015, mainly due to trade with Russia. These figures serve as a powerful argument that Moscow regularly leverages in its negotiations with Yerevan.

Thus, it would be naïve to expect Moscow to allow Yerevan to embark on a "free course." On the contrary, in order to keep Armenia within its sphere of influence, Russia continues to apply "soft pressure," consistently reminding Yerevan that its financial and economic viability, as well as its security guarantees, depend on Moscow.

Immediately after the Armenian parliament voted on 12 February to adopt the bill initiating the country’s EU accession process, Moscow responded harshly. In particular, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov sent a clear message to Yerevan during a conversation with journalists, stating that Armenia cannot simultaneously be a member of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

"What does Armenia’s EU membership mean? It is difficult to say at this point, but it is obvious that being a member of two such different organisations is hypothetically impossible," Peskov said, underscoring the negative consequences of the Armenian leadership’s ill-considered policies.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk also made a tough statement, noting that Armenia’s decision could be seen as the beginning of its exit from the Eurasian Economic Union.

At the start of the year, the Russian Foreign Ministry had already warned of the catastrophic consequences of Armenia joining the EU. During a briefing, the ministry’s official representative, Maria Zakharova, stated that European integration would lead to a severe deterioration of Armenia’s economic situation and a sharp decline in living standards.

"Armenian products will face higher tariffs, resulting in a drastic slowdown in GDP growth. This will be a blow not only to current revenues but also to long-term development," the diplomat stressed, pointing out that Armenian exports could shrink by as much as 80 per cent.

Thus, the Russian side has made it clear to Yerevan that it is ready to leverage financial and economic pressure—one of the factors that ultimately led Armenia to suspend its EU integration process. However, given the inconsistency of Armenia’s leadership, the likelihood of Yerevan definitively outlining the country’s future foreign policy course remains extremely low.