Moscow's silence on AZAL crash, Trump’s Mideast plan, and Danish straits in Russia-West standoff Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of the “Events” (“Sobitiya”) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the key news of the week, both related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

The Kazakh Ministry of Transport has released a preliminary report on the investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Aktau.

According to the report, there were two external sounds with a 24-second interval, as well as numerous through-and-through and non-through damages of varying sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage. "Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing of the aircraft, as well as on various components and systems of the plane. In some areas, the damages have a distinct rectangular shape," the report states. Experts noted that the puncture damages point to the penetration of external objects into the aircraft's structure. A source in the Azerbaijani government confirmed to Reuters that the Azerbaijani side possesses a fragment of a missile from the Pantsir-S air defence system, which was recovered from the plane's wreckage and identified during an international investigation. 

By comparing the report with the transcript of the radio communications between the air traffic controllers and the aircraft's crew, previously published by Russian media, it can be concluded that the "Carpet" signal was issued a few minutes after the aircraft was subjected to external impact. Furthermore, the aircraft's crew was not notified of the "Carpet" signal either before or after it was activated. All this confirms the negligent actions of the Russian side, which led to the tragedy in the skies over Grozny. Moscow has yet to take responsibility for the disaster. The Russia-Azerbaijan relations have also been tested due to another recent development. Baku sent an official note to the Russian side regarding the closure of the "Russian House" citing its lack of registration as a legal entity and its serious violations of Azerbaijani law. In response, several Russian politicians and public figures have issued angry statements, threatening to close Azerbaijani diaspora organisations in Russia, arrest their representatives, restrict businesses, and even expel individuals of Azerbaijani descent—who are not Russian citizens—from the country. 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's actions are not anti-Russian ones in nature; rather, they are aimed at strengthening the country's national sovereignty. Along with the note to Russia regarding the cessation of the activity of the Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) in Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry officially notified the US about the termination of the activity of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) on its territory. As for USAID, as is well known, USAID has faced challenges not only in Azerbaijan but also in the US. Last week, two high-ranking security officers of the agency were placed on unpaid leave after refusing to grant access to classified information to representatives of the Government Accountability Office, led by Elon Musk. Musk publicly labeled USAID a criminal organisation and called for its dismantling. 

US President Donald Trump, in his social media post, also urged for the closure of USAID.   Trump stated that USAID was essentially fraudulent, claiming that very little of the organization's funds were spent on good causes. He added that every line of its budget he reviewed seemed to be either corruption or something absurd. Meanwhile, in Baku, the trial continues for individuals accused of war crimes against Azerbaijan. At the latest session, defendant Arayik Harutyunyan labeled the allegations spread by Armenian media, at the behest of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as false. These allegations claimed that psychological pressure was being exerted on the defendants and that psychotropic drugs were being administered to them. Pashinyan recently made a working visit to the US.

The purpose of the trip was clearly to assess the level of interest the new White House administration has in engaging with processes in the South Caucasus, as well as to gauge Washington's support for Yerevan in various fields. However, despite the Armenian side's efforts, a meeting with Trump did not take place. Instead, Pashinyan met with pro-Armenian members of Congress, as well as Vice President James David Vance. The meeting with diaspora representatives attracted attention, where the Armenian prime minister cautiously reiterated the idea of reassessing the events of 1915 and the potential interests of third parties in escalating the issue of the so-called "Armenian genocide". Overall, this suggests an understanding that for Armenia’s prosperity, it must work on improving relations with both Azerbaijan and Türkiye. 

Ukraine – Russia

There was a recent noticeable slowdown in the progress of the Russian military in Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an attempt at a counteroffensive in Russia's Kursk region. It remains unclear whether this move is aimed at disrupting the anticipated negotiations with Moscow or strengthening Ukraine’s position ahead of them.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his willingness to engage in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In turn, despite continuing to voice the narrative of Zelenskyy's "illegitimacy", the Kremlin also stated its readiness to hold talks with him. These mutual agreements between the leaders of the two countries are seen as a result of the parallel influence of Trump’s administration. US president’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg stated that Trump is prepared to tighten sanctions against Russia to end the war. At the same time, Denmark, likely under pressure from Washington, announced that it would intensify checks on vessels transporting Russian oil through Danish straits. Combined with Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities, this move could significantly reduce Moscow’s oil revenue and, consequently, its funding for the military campaign. 

Israel 

The role of the US is increasingly felt in the Middle East. The US citizens are now on the ground in Gaza—contractors are involved in inspecting vehicles of Palestinians returning to the northern part of the enclave as part of an agreement between Israel and Hamas. Moreover, President Trump remains committed to his plan of relocating Gaza's residents to third countries. After talks in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump stated that he would like to permanently resettle the majority of Gaza's population in other countries, while the US could take control of the enclave to clear the area of rubble and rebuild it as the "Riviera of the Middle East" for everyone. Trump has not ruled out the possibility of stationing US troops in the Gaza Strip.

It remains unclear whether this plan is absolute or if it serves as a leverage tool to pressure Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, to adopt a scenario for Gaza's future reconstruction that would be acceptable to both the US and Israel. It is clear that part of the discussions focused on the two allies' policies regarding Iran. While details remain undisclosed, there is a general understanding that Trump is currently inclined to refrain from military action against the country, hoping to reach an agreement with Tehran using his preferred method—sanctions and deals.