Russia, US, and Iran’s nuclear gamble: A high-stakes diplomatic triangle Will Tehran’s ambitions be a bargaining chip?

On February 18, Russian and US delegations met in Saudi Arabia to discuss resolving the conflict in Ukraine. These talks marked the first large-scale negotiations between Moscow and Washington in recent years, including since the start of the war in Ukraine. During the meeting, the parties also discussed the possible organization of a summit between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. While the potential meeting between Trump and Putin has drawn global attention, it is of particular interest to Iran, where officials recognize Washington’s firm stance on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s concerns over the upcoming talks between the Russian and US leaders were addressed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. He assured that the initiation of Russian-American negotiations would not impact Moscow’s ongoing cooperation with Tehran. "The process of interaction between Moscow and Tehran is in no way linked to Russian-American relations," Peskov stated in response to a question from IRNA about the Kremlin’s position if US President Donald Trump were to demand that Russia cease its cooperation with Iran.

It is important to note that this is not the first time Iran has shown concern over US-Russia negotiations. A similar situation occurred in 2018, when Iran closely followed the meeting between presidents Trump and Putin at the Russia-US summit in Helsinki. The primary focus of that meeting was the situation in Syria. While no official documents or statements were signed following the summit, President Putin later revealed in an interview with Channel One that the two sides had still managed to reach a compromise on some aspects of the Syrian conflict, taking Iran’s interests into account. Notably, prior to the summit, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Trump and Putin planned to discuss the withdrawal of Iran-backed forces from Syria. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed this claim, firmly stating that it did not reflect reality.

Despite the existence of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Iran and Russia, signed on January 17, 2025, the upcoming US-Russia negotiations are causing unease in Tehran. It is worth recalling that on February 4, Donald Trump signed an executive order reinstating the maximum pressure policy on Tehran. Following this move, he stated his willingness to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran as an alternative to using coercive measures against the Islamic Republic.

There is no doubt that the US will demand Iran abandon its nuclear weapons development during the upcoming talks. Likewise, it is evident that this issue will be on the agenda in the Russian-American negotiations. As Russia’s strategic partner, Tehran naturally hopes for a certain degree of support from Moscow on this matter. Iran also fully understands that, as a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Russia could be offered a favourable deal by the US regarding Iran in exchange for certain territorial concessions in Ukraine. Moreover, Moscow has already expressed its willingness to engage in negotiations with the West.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov previously stated that Russia is open to dialogue with Washington and prepared to negotiate under a framework of "hard bargaining." Given this, it is clear that the US is intent on ending the war in Ukraine while simultaneously seeking to resolve the issue of Tehran’s nuclear program. This raises the key question: what position will Russia take regarding Iran during its talks with the US? Taking various factors into account, it seems most likely that Moscow will maintain a neutral stance on the issue, shifting the responsibility onto Tehran and Washington.

First, Russia has no particular interest in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Moscow does not need another nuclear-armed state in its immediate neighbourhood. Additionally, if Tehran were to develop nuclear capabilities, it could encourage other Middle Eastern countries to pursue similar ambitions, further increasing regional risks — an outcome that does not align with Russia’s interests.

Second, the Kremlin has already emphasized that the Iranian nuclear issue should be addressed through diplomatic means.

"Moscow is convinced that the issue of Iran’s nuclear program can and should be resolved diplomatically, provided there is political will from all involved parties. We value our good relations with Iran and are ready to assist in resolving key issues such as its nuclear program," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated in an interview with IRNA.

Given these factors, it is highly likely that during the upcoming Putin-Trump negotiations, Moscow will seek to defuse tensions surrounding Iran in order to prevent a deterioration in relations with the new US administration and to avoid the imposition of even stricter anti-Russian sanctions.

In discussing the upcoming Russian-American negotiations in relation to Iran’s nuclear program, Russian expert Alexey Nezhivoy, head of the Laboratory of Political and Social Technologies, shared a similar viewpoint in an interview with Caliber.Az. He stated that during its talks with the US, Russia is likely to handle the issue of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions with caution and will maintain a neutral stance.

"On one hand, Russia has no interest in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. However, even considering the fact that — I acknowledge this may sound cynical — Iran is Türkiye’s geopolitical rival in the region, I am not certain that Russia will take an open stance against Iran’s nuclear program. If we factor in that President Trump initially adopted an aggressive policy toward Iran but later significantly toned down his rhetoric, it is possible that, following the upcoming US-Iran negotiations, Tehran may be allowed to develop a limited nuclear arsenal. This would be similar to the case of Pakistan, which acts as a counterbalance to India.

For this reason, I believe that the US will, in any scenario, seek negotiations with Russia over the division of Ukraine, with both sides pushing their own agendas. However, as I have already mentioned, Moscow is likely to retain a neutral stance regarding Iran’s nuclear issue," Nezhivoy explained.