SCO summit and progress on the Baku–Yerevan track Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, featuring the week’s main news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

China

The world’s attention was drawn to two major events in China. First, the SCO summit and the “SCO Plus” meetings in Tianjin, followed by a military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to have maximised the impact of both events. And no one helped him quite like Donald Trump. A striking punishment of India with draconian tariffs forced its prime minister, if not to embrace the Chinese leader, at least to extend both hands toward him in a sudden display of goodwill. And this is between two countries that have traditionally been rivals. The warming of ties between them proceeded so swiftly that Xi Jinping did not hold back on lavish Eastern metaphors, wishing a good dance to the dragon and the elephant.

We won’t accuse Xi of trolling his Indian counterpart, yet it seems that this metaphor does carry a certain pattern. Imagining a dragon dancing is quite easy—it doesn’t just dance, it soars, glides, writhes, and breathes out flames, presumably stirring its partner with them. But picturing a dancing elephant is a bit more challenging. The point here is that the leading role in this duo is clearly assigned to someone we all know.

However, there is a third participant in this campaign: Russia. Narendra Modi personally led Vladimir Putin to comrade Xi, as if he couldn’t have done it on his own. Clearly, this scene was meant to further emphasise the outlines of an emerging anti-Western coalition.

But what is the outcome? Even before the summit concluded, Putin, Xi, and Mongolian President Khurelsukh signed a legally binding memorandum on the construction of the “Power of Siberia – 2” gas pipeline from Russia to China through Mongolian territory. It’s important to note that a memorandum is not yet an agreement. There is still a long way to go. The parties must discuss many issues, one of which is, of course, the price of the future gas. Experts note that China will likely push Russia for rock-bottom prices.

Moreover, constructing this pipeline—considering it runs from Western, not Eastern Siberia—will take several years. Thus, these arrangements are unlikely to help Russia address its current budgetary challenges. The memorandum has a more long-term political character for both sides, effectively signaling a course toward closer ties in the face of a common rival. It is worth recalling that gas from Western Siberia has, for decades before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, been successfully pumped to Europe at prices several times higher than those expected from the deal with China.

In the final declaration, SCO member states called for a reform of the UN, expressed their intention to develop military cooperation, and condemned Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. Notably, Ukraine is not mentioned in the summit’s declaration, which can be seen as a significant compliment to Russia and almost a tacit recognition of the war in Ukraine as a “domestic Russian conflict.”

Inspired by China’s reception, Moscow has once again toughened its rhetoric toward Ukraine. If you recall, over the past month there was active discussion of a so-called territorial swap—essentially freezing the conflict without demanding that Ukraine hand over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Now, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has reiterated demands for the surrender of all four regions.

Moreover, whereas Moscow previously appeared not to resist Trump’s idea of a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, the Russian leader has now effectively dismissed that notion, signaling his willingness to meet the Ukrainian president… only in Moscow.

A few words about the military parade in Beijing. Like much of China today, it impressed with its sheer power and coordination. Most importantly, China showcased a range of weapons at the forefront of technological advancement, including laser cannons, wolf robots, and, of course, the latest long-range ballistic missiles. Notably, there was a change in the trio of leaders this time: Narendra Modi’s place was taken by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In any case, all these maneuvers and manipulations on Chinese soil greatly angered Trump. On social media, he noted that the U.S. has effectively lost Russia and India, which have drawn closer to China: “It seems we’ve lost India and Russia, handing them over to dark and gloomy China. May they have a long and happy future together!” wrote the American president.

At the same time, he made it clear to Europeans that the mere rapprochement of the so-called dark powers does not mean he will rush into the embrace of the Old World. On the contrary, the American president used the situation to tighten the noose around Europe even further. During a videoconference with European leaders, Trump accused them of “financing the war” in Ukraine through purchases of Russian oil and urged them to cut Moscow off from this revenue source, as well as to put pressure on China in this regard. It is worth noting that this concerns European purchases of Russian oil via India, from which New Delhi profits first and foremost.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also took part in the events in China. He held a series of important meetings with representatives of major Chinese businesses, signaling significant engagement of Chinese capital in a range of projects across Azerbaijan. Aliyev also met with Xi Jinping. The leaders of the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to strategic partnership and particularly emphasized the role of the Middle Corridor in its implementation.

Regarding the SCO agenda, President Ilham Aliyev participated in the “SCO Plus” meeting. It should be noted that India blocked Azerbaijan’s bid for full membership in the organization. According to certain sources cited by APA, Moscow played a decisive role in this decision, effectively putting New Delhi at the forefront. As expected, in response, Pakistan blocked Armenia’s candidacy.

What is remarkable—and even positive—about this situation is that it caused no harm to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, in which a significant development occurred. For the first time since the conflict, delegations from both countries, led by Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev and Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, conducted reciprocal visits.

All this, however, does not mean that there are no obstacles on the path to a peace agreement. On the contrary, last week we witnessed a resurgence of revanchist circles in Armenia. The culmination of this wave was the unveiling of a monument with the striking name “Call of Artsakh” at the Yerablur military cemetery. In this way, the opposition seeks to plant emotional markers and hinder the psychological reset of Armenian society that Prime Minister Pashinyan is promoting.

It remains to be hoped that Pashinyan, while not preventing the installation of the monument, still acted on the side of peace. It is possible that by doing so, he avoided an entirely unnecessary surge of protests at this moment.

Meanwhile, a strange twist has emerged in the case of the Azerbaijani passenger plane shot down over Grozny at the end of last year. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement attempting to refute reports that the Russian side had failed to pay compensation to the families of the victims. As evidence, it cited data on insurance payouts made by the company in connection with the air disaster.

This is a clear conflation of concepts. When Baku demands compensation, it does not refer to insurance payouts, but specifically to compensation from the Russian state. The distinction lies in the fact that insurance payments are made by a company in a range of cases and carry no political significance—they occur entirely within a commercial context. State compensation, on the other hand, is a political gesture, signaling, above all, acknowledgment of responsibility for the tragic incident.

However, this acknowledgement has not yet occurred. I would like to remind you that acknowledgement also includes elements such as an apology for the incident and punishment for all those responsible. Until this set of measures is implemented, there can be no talk of a serious improvement in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.