Subservient existence of Armenia: "Between the hell and the deep blue sea" Foreign pundits talk to Caliber.Az

The collective West is not ready to assume such commitments towards Armenia that could replace the CSTO mechanisms, said Anna Grigoryan, MP from Armenia bloc, in a conversation with Armenian media.

"Based on everything that is happening, a logical question sounds: Pashinyan, if you boycott the CSTO meetings, complain, and conduct anti-Russian rhetoric, then why don't you leave the Organization? Recently, one of the European parliamentarians said during a meeting with us: "We asked him this question and received an answer that serious geopolitical centres, meaning the United States, said that it was not necessary to leave the CSTO yet," Grigoryan noted.

The question is indeed relevant. For more than a year now, this murky story has been dragging on with Yerevan's distrust of this military bloc, with accusatory statements that this organisation did not go to war with Azerbaijan, etc.

Since spring and summer, Yerevan has been hinting that Armenia will finally leave the CSTO soon and find military partners in the West. But for some reason, it still does not leave this organisation - what can explain this strange ambivalence? Is Yerevan playing a game, trying to deceive someone? Or could Washington really recommend Pashinyan not to leave this bloc? For what purposes? What could America possibly need it for?

Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Ruslan Aysin, a Russian political scientist and editor-in-chief of the "Poistine" portal, notes that since Armenia is not really a subject of big politics, it seems that whatever it is told or ordered from various centres of influence (let it be Washington, Brussels, Paris or Moscow), it does.

"This is exactly a characteristic indicator. If Armenia were independent in decision-making, it would proceed from its own interests. But here we can see that in trying to please everyone, official Yerevan is actually depriving itself of the opportunity to pursue its own nationally oriented policy and build normal relations with Azerbaijan. Because there are interested forces that, of course, do not want any calm and peace in this region, and require Armenia to be such an enfant terrible (‘terrible child’) behaving inadequately," he says.

Pashinyan has indeed said many times that the CSTO is not fulfilling its obligations and therefore staying in this organisation makes no sense, Aysin noted.

"However, these words were not followed by any deeds, no concrete and principled decisions. And this once again demonstrates that Yerevan has no strategy - today this way, tomorrow that way. Today they say let's sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, and tomorrow some forces intervene, and Pashinyan and his team start spinning like a hot frying pan.

Everyone knows that the CSTO is a stillborn and useless project, but since no one gives Pashinyan any guarantees (both the EU and the US only feed him with some promises), the Armenian authorities are afraid to leave this association.

I think MP Grigoryan's statement that the Americans do not allow Armenia to leave the CSTO is an attempt to hide behind the broad back of Big Brother. In reality, Yerevan itself does not want to, because it does not understand how to move forward. Nobody gives any guarantees, but here it at least can cover itself behind the CSTO and complain, call or appeal to Moscow.

Yerevan generally has no vector. Although it has already been clearly and quite specifically offered to be friends with Baku and Ankara. It was offered to participate in all kinds of economic and infrastructure projects. Then Yerevan would grow its economy and forget about its dreams of "great Armenia" and the country would live normally. But, as I have already said, the global influence centres have little interest in this, because they need to put pressure on Azerbaijan, on Türkiye, and that's how they are playing with Armenia as they want," Aysin believes. 

American political scientist Andrew Korybko said in his turn that the US is luring Armenia to its side from Russia, and so far it has managed to persuade Yerevan to informally put the brakes on its participation in the CSTO, although Washington is unlikely to advise the country to formally withdraw from this mutual defence pact.

"The reasons are pragmatic, namely that it is politically unrealistic to imagine that Armenia can quickly move from the CSTO to NATO since membership in the latter requires the approval of all existing members.

Not only would Armenia be vulnerable during the transition from Russia's security zone to NATO membership, but Türkiye and perhaps others are unlikely to support such a desire on Yerevan's part. This leads to the strange situation where Armenia has unofficially suspended its participation in the CSTO as it expands military ties with France, a NATO member, but its security remains Russia's legal responsibility. In terms of a zero-sum game, this arrangement favours Armenia and NATO more than Russia," the analyst said.

Nevertheless, he believes that Moscow is unlikely to expel Armenia from its bloc, since it does not want to scare off other members, and also harbours hope that Yerevan may eventually reconsider its actions.

"Most likely, this status quo will remain indefinitely for reasons that have been explained, in particular, by the relevant calculations of the CSTO and NATO. At this time, Armenia will be in a state of geopolitical limbo, which will lead to uncertainty about its future and, possibly, scare away foreign investors," concluded Andrew Korybko.