The second tour in Türkiye's presidential elections How will the vote affect foreign policy?

On May 14, Türkiye’s fiercely contested presidential and parliamentary elections were concluded, though with no clear winner. While the majority of votes have been counted until now, it appears that the elections will likely go to a second round after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure 50% of the votes cast to extend his rule decisively.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing his toughest test yet after two decades in power, grappling with public anger over worsening economic conditions and the slow government response to a series of devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people. His primary opponent, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), is running as a unity candidate representing six different parties that all want to replace the long-term Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule.

Politically, Turkey is highly divided, with candidates using polarizing and fear-mongering messages in an attempt to galvanize voters. The two leading candidates and their differing visions for the country's future have fuelled heated debate over the economy, democracy, security, territorial integrity, counterterrorism and foreign policy.

In the last sprints of the nail-bitingly close election race, the duelling candidates have both placed heavy emphasis on the historical resonance of the vote falling exactly 100 years after the foundation of the secular Turkish republic by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923. Indeed, President Erdogan wants to build on two decades of experience - and the resulting pragmatism, realism and self-confidence that it brings - to pursue an integrated defence, security and energy policy with three key objectives.

The state that Atatürk forged from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923 was secular and modernizing, often along Western models, with the introduction of Latin letters. This year however, conservative Erdogan, with his political Islam agenda, vowed to rekindle relations with the West, namely NATO and the US, to restore the country's international reputation.

By contrast, Erdogan’s main rival Kılıçdaroğlu is trying to assume the full mantle of Atatürk and is stressing the need to put the country back on the path toward pro-Western norms. Moreover, the six-party bloc led by the main opposition CHP pledges to undo Erdogan's executive presidency and promises to reinvigorate the country’s commitment to becoming a member of the European Union by carrying out necessary reforms.

Although none of the opponents claimed full victory in the first tour, the opposition seemed glad with the current results. President Erdogan is leading Kilicdaroglu by nearly 5% but has slipped below the 50% mark, making a runoff very likely. 

According to the government's Anadolu Agency, 99.38% of ballot boxes have been counted, with Erdogan at 49.42% and Kilicdaroglu at 44.95%. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2% of the votes, raising the possibility he could be a kingmaker in a runoff. Nevertheless, according to the opposition media, not all votes have been counted, and some boxes were still unsealed, which suggests that Kemal Kilichdaroglu may receive additional critical votes.

The current election process marks one of the most contested polls in Türkiye’a modern history. Both the ruling alliance and main-opposition-led six-party bloc officials call on election volunteers and activists to stay in polling stations where counting continues.

If successful in the second tour, it is unlikely that Erdogan will swiftly shift his foreign policy agenda. For example, undoubtedly, the new government will resume the fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), will not ease tensions with the US soon, and will heavily rely on developing the national defence industry as the core milestone of his long-term rule. Also, after years of low-interest rate policies that have contributed to high inflation and currency devaluation, Erdogan would likely need to adjust his economic policy to address the current economic crisis and attract investment.

However, some experts argue that the final results of the critical elections would be insufficient for a smooth transition of power in Türkiye and even cause violence and instability if the result is disputed, which would bring more volatility to the country’s already damaged economy.