The US-GCC summit in Riyadh could be a source of concern for Iran A defensive bulwark against Tehran is on the rise

On February 13, senior US officials from the Biden administration took part in security meetings in Riyadh to discuss Iran and other common threats, pushing back against claims that Washington is looking to distance itself from the Middle East. The meeting came as a part of the US-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Working Group meetings that include officials from the Pentagon, State Department and the National Security Council.

Reportedly, the US National Security Council officials are participating in the meetings, which focus on the Biden administration's next steps vis-a-vis Iran, building regional integrated air and missile defence, maritime security cooperation and counterterrorism.

Such a critical meeting of state officials of the US and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s top arch-foes, came at a time when strained relations between Tehran and the West peaked. The Biden administration terminated the nuclear negotiation process with Iran amid its renewed terrorist activities in the Gulf region and open alignment with Russia in its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Hence, the US-GCC meetings that began on February 13 are focused on countering Iran’s continued threats to Saudi Arabia, the wider Gulf, and American forces stationed in Iraq and Syria to combat the remnants of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), a radical terrorist organization.

As for Riyadh, the Saudi kingdom seeks more pressure on Iran to thwart the security risks to its borders that stem from Yemeni-based Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. According to US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana Stroul, the Yemeni militia has not shown an interest in peace and has used the recent truce to rearm with Iranian weapons. Indeed, the US and its Gulf allies are mostly concerned with the swift proliferation of Iranian-made kamikaze drones among its proxy forces in the last two years.

Regional countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — in the past frequently condemned Iran's malign behaviour through proxies, partly because of Tehran's weapon shipments to proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. As such, strengthening US-GCC ties has been a key priority for successive US administrations, including the Biden administration. Therefore, it is expected that the Iran working group led by Rob Malley will lay out to GCC counterparts “exactly where we move forward in the next step” regarding Tehran.

Moreover, the US-GCC members are looking to work more closely on information and technology sharing related to detecting and downing incoming ballistic missile, cruise missile and kamikaze drone threats.

The US is concerned that Iran’s drone supplies to Russia and its active use against Ukraine may enable Tehran to make improvements and apply them to its violence against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Such a scenario will indeed put the US forces in Iraq and Syria under constant threat from Iranian allied militia groups that seek to destroy them constantly.

In order to prevent the growing influence of Tehran in the Middle East region, the Biden administration will not take eyes off their two biggest goals in the Middle East: restraining Iran’s nuclear enrichment via diplomacy and furthering Arab normalization with Israel. Hence, the recent years’ increase in attacks and threats by Iran and its proxy forces have helped put regional militaries like the UAE, Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia into a formal alliance against Tehran's influence, as many of them hold Iran accountable and responsible for these attacks because Iran is arming, training, equipping and guiding destructive terrorist organizations across the region.

A few weeks ago, prior to the US-GCC meeting in Riyadh, the US navy in the Gulf confiscated a significant amount of arms being shipped by Iran to its allied militias in Yemen. The frequent confiscation of illegal arms transfer by Iran must be seen in a broader picture as a part of the Western attempts to curb Tehran's influence and neglect its proxy forces in the region. In this vein, the Gulf monarchies remain key partners of the US in its anti-Iran campaign.

Given the recent meeting of its arch-foes in Riyadh, it is likely that Tehran's destructive activities in the region will rise dramatically, adding more fuel to the confrontation with the Western allies. As such, the Biden administration will gradually lean on the Pentagon as it runs out of options to rein in Iran's nuclear enrichment via negotiations. Moreover, the willingness of regional Arab states to be seen as part of a US-Israeli-led military bulwark could be a signal for a point of no return in another deadly regional escalation.