Triumph in Karabakh and device explosions in Middle East Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.  

Azerbaijan – Armenia

The one-year anniversary of the historic anti-terrorist operation in Karabakh was marked on September 19. Within less than 24 hours, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces compelled the remaining Armenian military units and separatist groups in Karabakh to lay down their arms.        

The Azerbaijani flag was raised in Khojaly, Aghdara, Askeran, Khojavend, and Khankendi, signifying the full restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty. On this significant date, Yerevan once again failed to conceal its true revanchist sentiments, despite previous statements advocating for peace. The Armenian Foreign Ministry issued a statement labeling the voluntary relocation of Armenians from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to Armenia as "ethnic cleansing" and "deportation", while describing the Azerbaijani Armed Forces' anti-terrorist operation as an "attack on Karabakh".

Moreover, Armenian diplomats have suggested that they plan to raise the issue at the upcoming UN General Assembly. It will be intriguing to see how they attempt to convince the international community that a country can launch an attack against itself.   Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has officially commemorated September 20 as the State Sovereignty Day. This date also coincided with another planned visit by President Aliyev to the Karabakh region.

The president reviewed various projects in the region and participated in the inauguration of several facilities, including the Uzeyir Hajibeyli’s House-Museum in Shusha, plants in the Aghdam Industrial Park, and the academic building and dormitory of Karabakh University in Khankendi. At this university, which currently has six faculties, more than 1,100 students from all districts of Azerbaijan have begun their studies. President Aliyev addressed students and faculty at Karabakh University. While discussing the anti-terrorist operation of September 19-20, he shared an intriguing detail.  

"In a matter of just a few hours, the approximately 15,000-strong expeditionary corps of the Armenian army was completely paralyzed, and we began discussing the terms of their surrender. Indeed, the overall process lasted 23 hours, but the military aspect of it only lasted a few hours," the president said.

The president emphasised the high morale of Azerbaijani soldiers, asserting that without it, no level of professionalism or weaponry can contribute to victory.

President Aliyev also reminded that during the years of Armenian occupation in Karabakh, visitors from various capitals repeatedly claimed that a military solution to the conflict did not exist. In other words, they wanted Azerbaijani people to accept this defeat.

“We, the Azerbaijani people, dismantled all these plans and defeated them. That is why, to this day, we are unjustly accused and pressured,” President Aliyev stated.  

The president also provided a brief historical overview, specifically mentioning the policy of Armenisation implemented by the central Soviet authorities in the region. The role of Azerbaijani national leader Heydar Aliyev in opposing this policy was highlighted. After leaving the position of First Deputy Chairman of the Soviet Council of Ministers in 1987, an unrestrained Armenian campaign began to detach the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) from Azerbaijan, facing little resistance from the Soviet leadership. The Azerbaijani people put an end to a long history of injustices that spanned decades, which included the loss of their ancestral territories.        

The victory in the second Karabakh war and the complete restoration of sovereignty have become— as the president also expressed—symbols of justice being restored in a world increasingly skeptical of its existence. The revival of educational and academic life in liberated Karabakh exemplifies the firm resolve of Azerbaijani society to uphold and defend this justice.

 Ukraine - Russia

The Russian army continues making attempts to advance toward Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, where fierce battles are ongoing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces not only have been successful in repelling Russian attacks near Pokrovsk but are also making efforts to launch counterattacks.

In the Kursk region, Russian forces continue making their unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Armed Forces units. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that he has prepared another victory plan. He stated that he will soon present this plan to US President Joe Biden, as well as to two presidential candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the French Le Monde newspaper published what appears to be a key point of this plan—Ukraine must be urgently admitted to NATO, seemingly with the endorsement of Kyiv.

Given that Ukraine's neutral status is one of Moscow's primary demands and the likelihood of Ukraine joining the alliance is quite low, it can be concluded that Kyiv is simply attempting to evade the peace conditions being imposed on it. The crux of the issue is that without a significant increase in Western assistance, Kyiv cannot realistically expect any breakthrough in the war. One can only assume that they are currently contemplating asymmetric surprises, similar to those actions taken in the Kursk region.

 Middle East

Fighting continues at a low intensity in the Gaza Strip. The hostage deal is once again stalled, to the extent that officials in Washington have stated that Israel and Hamas will fail to reach an agreement before the US presidential elections.

Meanwhile, Tel Aviv is ramping up preparation for an operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The recent week has been marked by extensive attacks on missile launchers, ammunition depots, weapons caches, and other facilities associated with the group. 

However, the most surprising development was the unprecedented operation to detonate pagers used by Hezbollah members for enhanced secrecy. Thousands of devices, which had explosive charges implanted during their production, exploded simultaneously in their hands. As a result, hundreds of people sustained serious injuries, many of whom were left completely blind. This operation, for which Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, effectively paralyzed Hezbollah's entire command and coordination system.

This means that Israel intends to launch a military operation against Hezbollah within a matter of days. However, reports suggest that war could be averted—Hezbollah would need to meet Tel Aviv's primary demand: to withdraw beyond the Litani River. This would ensure relative security for northern Israel and allow for the revival of life in the region.