Türkiye’s growing role as drone superpower to increase export capabilities Success comes at a price

Modern warfare tactics have become vitally important with the growing number of violent global conflicts amid global security cataclysms. In this vein, the role of modern weaponry equipped with smart technology, such as combat drones and loitering munitions, is proven to be one the most effective tools for ambushing enemy forces.

Hence, the importance of drone technology in battleground enabled drone-producer countries, including Türkiye, to boost their leverage over the global defence market in recent years. Türkiye has been capitalizing on the noteworthy performance of its domestically produced drones in operational theatres ranging from Syria and Libya to the South Caucasus as Ankara seeks to steadily increase the number of drones it sells to other countries.

However, Ankara’s success in developing drone technology and exporting to third countries has come at a price, as it is drawing international attention and attracting criticism over its drone export policies. As such, in December 2021, the US publicly expressed humanitarian concerns over the use of Turkish drones in Ethiopia, where conflict between the government and fighters in the region of Tigray had gone violent for several months. They also featured prominently on battlefields in Syria and Libya.

Notwithstanding, Türkiye’s defence exports reached $4.4 billion in 2022, the country's highest level ever. Moreover, the total budget of defence industry projects exceeded $60 billion, with R&D spending reaching some $1.5 billion annually. The reason for the recently growing demand for Turkish-made combat drones is, indeed Russo-Ukrainian war unfolded in early 2022.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has boosted the international popularity of the Bayraktar drones, with Kyiv composing a song for the aerial vehicles’ success against the Russian army. Shortly before Ukraine’s import of drones, Poland has become the first NATO member to place an order for Turkish drones: 24 TB2s armed with anti-tank missiles.

Clearly, Turkey has arrived as a major arms exporter, which raises a number of questions. Since 2016, Türkiye's defence industry has faced setbacks after EU defence embargoes over its military operations against the Syrian Kurdish groups and US sanctions over its purchase of Russian S-400 systems. Although some individual NATO member states praised the capabilities of Turkish drones and their positive impacts on countering Russian aggression in Ukraine, Ankara needs to take concrete steps to consolidate its image as a responsible drone exporter in a manner that strengthens its prospects in a competitive market.

Recent data suggests that the Turkish defence export market will grow up to $26.1 billion in 2028. The mounting criticism toward Ankara is attributed mainly to its decreasing dependence on Western defence technologies, which in turn reduces the Western leverage over the local defence market.

Ironically, the similar criticism does not extend to a handful of European countries, Israel, and some Gulf monarchies, which actively acquire sophisticated Western-made weaponry in recent years. For example, in 2014, Israel dominated drone exports, accounting for more than 60 per cent of the volume of drone sales between 1985 and 2014, followed by the US, which accounted for about 24 per cent.

Israeli-made defence technology, particularly combat drones and loitering munitions, are among the most popular products, even though in the last three years, it faced real challenges in competing with cheaper, more accessible drones coming out of China and Türkiye. As a result, a cheap but combat-tested wide array of drones has become the face of Turkey's growing national defence industry.

Until the drone manufacturing boom, Ankara mainly produced small weapons and armoured personnel carriers for domestic consumption with modest export opportunities. Nevertheless, since 2018 the local arms industry has diversified significantly to include drones, missiles, frigates, and other high-end weapons systems, with prospects for submarine sales developing on the horizon.

Indeed, the fast-growing Turkish defence industry is a source of national pride, particularly against the backdrop of Ankara’s deteriorating relations with its allies and historical defence industry partners in the West, including the United States. The US ban on sales of the new generation F35 jets to Ankara was a turning point for the local defence industry, which triggered it to double its efforts to produce domestic fighter jets based on sophisticated defence technology. In this regard, Ankara unveiled the first-ever single-engine, low-observable, carrier-capable unmanned combat aerial vehicle, Kizilelma, which carried out its first successful flight on December 2022.

The breakthrough in the Turkish defence industry suggests that official Ankara is determined to decrease its dependence on Western weaponry by 2030 and fully revoke the foreign security leverage. Ankara apprehends that drones are here to stay, and Türkiye is likely to remain an attractive and willing supplier for countries seeking them.