Ukraine’s challenges and Hungary’s political turn Hope amid crisis

For Ukraine, the news that at the parliamentary elections in Hungary, the victory was won by Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which will now obtain a constitutional majority in the National Assembly, became truly joyful news.

Magyar’s statement that Hungary “ [...] has decided and wants to live again. It wants to be a European country again” has instilled hope in the Ukrainian political community that the position of the new Hungarian leadership regarding the agreed EU loan for Ukraine in the amount of €90 billion will change. Whether these expectations will be fulfilled remains to be seen, but Slovakia—whose Prime Minister Robert Fico supports blocking this EU tranche for Kyiv—should not be disregarded.

And although, in light of the news from Hungary, spirits in Ukraine have, as they say, been lifted, the overall situation remains far from favourable. Thus, despite the announced “Easter truce,” fighting on the front has not stopped: on Saturday, April 11, at around 5:30 p.m., when the “truce” had already come into effect, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian evacuation unit in Zaporizhzhia, and on Easter night they targeted a medical vehicle in the Hlukhiv community of Sumy region, as a result of which three Ukrainian medics were injured.

Overall, according to information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of the morning of April 12, there were more than 2,000 violations of the ceasefire regime on the front line: “As of 7 a.m. on April 12, 2,299 cases of ceasefire violations were recorded, namely: 28 assault actions, 479 enemy shellings, 747 kamikaze drone strikes (‘Lancet’, ‘Molniya’), and 1,045 FPV drone strikes. There were no missile strikes, guided aerial bombs, or Shahed-type UAV attacks.”

According to updated information, the Russian army carried out 58 air strikes, dropping 184 guided aerial bombs, and also used 8,458 kamikaze drones and shelled Ukrainian towns and positions 2,947 times. Strikes were carried out in the area of the settlement of Podhavrylivka in Dnipropetrovsk region and the city of Kherson. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the settlements of Vozdvizhenka, Tsvitkove, Kopani, Charivne, Rivne, Hromadné, and Omelnyk were affected by air strikes.

On the other hand, despite previously stated commitments, deliveries of fighter jets to Ukraine are facing new delays. This primarily concerns Belgium and Norway, which together were supposed to transfer 36 aircraft, but so far have not delivered a single unit of equipment.

The situation with Brussels is particularly complex, as the country promised the largest share of the batch—30 aircraft—but delays in the delivery of American F-35 fighter jets to the Belgian Air Force have postponed the retirement of F-16s from service. In addition, the country plans to gradually phase them out until 2028, meaning the deliveries may be stretched over several years.

Meanwhile, Norway, which pledged six aircraft, is also experiencing difficulties. It is known that all six aircraft are currently located at a factory in Belgium, but their repair has not yet begun.

At the same time, there is a management crisis in the field of defence procurement. Thus, the parliamentary committee of the Verkhovna Rada on national security, defence, and intelligence reviewed a report by the Accounting Chamber on an audit of drone procurement for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to which violations and deficiencies in the procurement of UAVs exceeded 77 billion hryvnias ($1.93 billion) in 2024. In particular, it was established that the army’s needs for unmanned systems were not fully covered financially. At the same time, the procedures for determining requirements, planning procurement, and prioritising it require an additional regulatory framework.

Member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Iryna Friz (European Solidarity faction) stated that, according to the audit results, more than 50 per cent of state contracts were concluded in violation of legislation: “We are seeing inflated UAV prices for a certain period totaling nearly 19 billion hryvnias, delays in delivery schedules, failure to impose penalties, and the accumulation of accounts receivable. All this indicates a crisis in the management of defence procurement.”

The parliamentarian also emphasised that in 2024—two years after the start of the war—despite enormous financial and military assistance from allies, the Ukrainian state failed to fully finance the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in UAVs, part of which ultimately had to be covered by volunteer funds.

And at present, the situation has not changed: volunteers regularly announce fundraising campaigns to purchase urgently needed equipment for specific units or detachments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, those who previously helped the army—ordinary Ukrainian citizens—now have significantly less money.

As can be seen, the overall situation for Ukraine contains a considerable number of drawbacks, and a single positive factor in the form of Orbán’s party’s defeat and Magyar’s victory is unlikely to outweigh them, despite all the optimism of the Ukrainian establishment.