Ukrainian scenario Illusions of peace and the reality of war

The declared ceasefire in the Middle East war is in the focus of attention of the entire international community, including the leaders of world powers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also reacted to this event, calling on Russia to cease fire against the backdrop of the Middle East truce.

“This is the right decision that leads to the end of the war. It preserves human lives, prevents the destruction of cities and villages, and allows power plants and other infrastructure to function normally. This means it creates time and the necessary conditions for diplomacy to produce results. Ukraine once again tells Russia: we are ready to respond in kind if the Russians stop their strikes. It is obvious to everyone that a ceasefire can create the right conditions for agreements,” the head of state wrote on his Telegram channel.

It should be recalled that earlier Kyiv had submitted a request to the United States for Russia regarding an Easter ceasefire, the readiness for which was also confirmed on April 7 by the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Heorhii Tykhyi: “We confirm our readiness for an Easter ceasefire. It remains in force. We are also ready for an energy ceasefire. If Russia stops its strikes, Ukraine is ready to respond in kind.”

Meanwhile, as Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Russia has not abandoned the creation of so-called buffer zones along the borders of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine, as well as efforts to establish conditions for an attempted seizure of Zaporizhzhia and the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson area. In addition, Russians are still reportedly planning to capture the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions.

“Moreover, they even have a plan to create a buffer zone in the Vinnytsia region from the direction of the unrecognised Transnistria. This is the first time such plans of this nature have been recorded,” Palisa said, noting at the same time that “there is no need to panic here, because at the moment I do not see them having the forces to implement all these intentions.”

It is quite clear that the Deputy Head of the Office of the President is trying to maintain calm in order not to escalate the situation. However, in reality things are far from so optimistic, since the main problem of the Ukrainian army is a shortage of personnel. This gap is being partially filled by a large number of drones, but nevertheless, the deficit of manpower continues to affect the course of the confrontation.

And against this unfavourable backdrop, another major political scandal has erupted in the country, triggered by a publication on the Ekonomichna Pravda website, which exposes the inner workings of what is described as corruption of staggering proportions, entangling Ukraine in its fifth year of war. The article presents current reported “prices” for various ways of evading mobilisation: $300–2,000 to be removed from a wanted list; around $5,000 to “walk out” of a Territorial Recruitment Centre (TCC) building without consequences; $7,000 for deferment via forged documents; $9,000 for a “lifetime” removal from the military register; $10,000–12,000 for schemes enabling departure abroad; up to $20,000 for booking/exemption; and up to $50,000 for a full package including disability status, removal from records, and exit from the country.

According to Ekonomichna Pravda, intermediaries even offer a so-called “special flight” scheme, referring to a medical evacuation arrangement. In this scenario, the client is allegedly placed in an ambulance with foreign licence plates, transported lying down with an oxygen mask (it is separately noted that smoking is discouraged), accompanied by paramedics and a special representative. The final destination is reportedly a hospital in Bucharest, Romania, followed by several days of paid accommodation after crossing the border.

To say that this cynical corruption scheme has caused a public outcry would be an understatement. In particular, former Verkhovna Rada deputy and one of Ukraine’s leading bloggers, Boryslav Bereza, wrote on his Facebook page that if all of this is confirmed, it could involve billions of dollars being “earned” through this conveyor system, and that such schemes would be impossible to implement without the patronage of the highest levels of political-military leadership and security structures.

Another blogger and political analyst, Victor Andrusiv, described the situation with mobilisation as “deadlocked” in his Telegram channel.

“The head of the Odesa TCC is suspected of laundering UAH 140 million, and this is only what is known. In fact, with this amount of money, one could have hired a company of Colombians for a year of service. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce an official option to pay for a one-year deferment. For example, $10,000 per year if you do not want to serve. This is equivalent to the corrupt amount required to leave the TCC. With the funds collected from deferments, it would be possible to hire many foreigners — Brazilians, Colombians, etc. I understand that someone might say: ‘So should only the poor fight?’ But if a person can pay $10,000, they will either pay it to a military recruiter in cash or officially to the state budget, from which foreigners can be hired. So choose what is better,” he wrote.

In his post, Andrusiv also noted that women should not be mobilised, but they can be incentivised: “A women’s package in the form of a one-time payment of 1 million hryvnias and then 100,000 hryvnias per month for one year could motivate them to join the armed forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces already have many examples of strong female soldiers. A woman operating an FPV drone can be as effective, or even more effective, than a man. If women voluntarily join the army, this would significantly strengthen our defence capability.”

Thus, all these statements and proposals suggest that Ukraine does not expect a swift end to the war with Russia.

The only possible benefit for the Ukrainian side from a temporary lull on the Middle East track could be a drop in oil prices on the markets, which would reduce Russia’s revenues. However, even this scenario appears unlikely, since, as is known, prices rarely return to the levels recorded before a given escalation began.