USA – Iran: Nuclear deadlock Sanctions, strikes, and survival

Tehran fears new sanctions and risks facing economic upheaval. However, it does not want to appear as though it is yielding to its opponent, noted analyst Seth Frantzman from the Israeli publication Jerusalem Post. Yet, Iran will ultimately have to make a choice. It can either pursue the creation of nuclear weapons or engage in negotiations with the United States. A third option is to continue surviving under increasingly stringent American sanctions, but this is becoming increasingly difficult.

Tehran is facing enormous and growing internal problems. Today, 70 per cent of Iranians live at or below the poverty line, according to the World Bank. On February 8, the exchange rate of the Iranian rial hit a historic low against the US dollar, as reported by Al-Arabiya. Since Donald Trump's re-election as US president in November, the exchange rate had been 690,000 rials to the dollar, but the Iranian currency continued to fall, reaching 883,100 rials per dollar. This will inevitably trigger a new surge in inflation and a rise in the cost of living, as Iran imports a significant portion of its goods from abroad.

The economic crisis is exacerbated by an energy crisis – a country with the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world has found itself unable to supply its power plants with sufficient gas. This has led to the shutdown of hundreds of factories and various institutions during the winter cold.

The causes of these economic misfortunes are both internal (corruption, mismanagement, nepotism) and external (American sanctions).

Internal problems are compounded by foreign policy failures. Iran's allies, Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have suffered heavy losses in the war with Israel and are weakened. A crucial link in the military-political coalition created by Tehran in the Middle East (the Axis of Resistance) was shattered when Bashar al-Assad's regime fell in Damascus. Although Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen have maintained their military strength, the loss of the central alliance pillar (Syria) has led to the isolation of Lebanon's Hezbollah and the disruption of the communications that provided its military capabilities and supply lines. Today, the tools through which Iran projected its influence abroad have either been destroyed or weakened.

The crisis in Iran’s foreign policy has internal repercussions. The population is outraged that the government is spending billions of dollars on helping foreign allies while the majority of Iranian workers live in poverty. People are asking why the leadership squandered their money by arming forces that turned out to be weak.

Since 2017, Iran has periodically been rocked by mass protests and strikes, driven by both economic and political demands. The two largest uprisings occurred in 2019 and 2022. The economic decline under the weight of escalating American sanctions is inevitable, meaning new uprisings are likely on the horizon.

The main paradox of the current situation is that Iran's growing weakness may push its leadership to pursue nuclear weapons in an attempt to balance the situation. Moreover, the Iranian leadership may view this issue as existential.

The issue is not only that nuclear weapons (NW) could theoretically protect Iran from external strikes. The most frightening scenario for the ruling class of the country is a Libyan or Syrian-style situation. This scenario implies that internal uprisings could be supported by external forces, which would attack columns of government troops sent to suppress protests and strike at central government institutions. In Libya in 2011, this task was carried out by NATO air forces, leading to the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi at the hands of local rebels. In Syria in 2024, Israeli air forces delivered heavy blows to Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces defending Bashar al-Assad's regime, weakening them and thus facilitating a rapid advance by anti-Assad rebels on Damascus, which fell after 11 days of fighting. Such a scenario could easily unfold in the perpetually rebellious Iran. This is why the regime may conclude that it needs nuclear weapons, believing that they will deter external forces. But will they?

Meanwhile, President Trump set tough conditions for Iran. He demanded that in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Iran must halt uranium enrichment, cease missile production (which could be used to carry nuclear warheads), and completely stop funding all of Iran's allies in the region. As a measure of pressure on Tehran, Trump signed an executive order to resume maximum pressure. This means tightening already severe sanctions. Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the US allowed Iran to sell 2 million barrels of oil per day to China, up from 400,000. Trump stated that his administration's goal is to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. This would mean sanctions against ports and other companies involved in receiving tankers carrying Iranian oil. Such a decision could ultimately devastate the country's economy.

Trump signed a presidential memorandum on national security, "restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad," according to a statement from the White House.

On February 8, Tehran responded to new American threats. Iranian government spokesperson Fatima Mohajerani stated that Iran will not engage in "dishonourable" negotiations. According to the IRNA news agency, Mohajerani emphasized, "In circumstances where negotiations are dishonourable, Iran will not give in to them." Additionally, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, described the country's past interactions with the U.S. — particularly negotiations under Presidents Obama and Biden — as "shameful."

Furthermore, new signals have emerged from Tehran regarding its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the second Iranian religious army with significant political influence and control over up to half of the country’s economy, is demanding that Iran's religious leader, Ali Khamenei, lift the fatwa banning nuclear weapons, as reported by the British publication The Telegraph, citing its sources.

"We have never been this vulnerable, and it may be our last chance to obtain one before it’s too late," said one official connected to the IRGC.

The Telegraph source pointed out that the Supreme Leader has forbidden both negotiations with the US and the development of nuclear weapons, and these were the two remaining "ways for survival [of the regime]." It is for this reason, the official added, that "he’s [the Supreme Leader] driving the regime toward collapse."

The fatwa banning the use of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction, particularly targeting innocent civilians, was issued by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2005. However, today there are increasing calls within Iran's leadership to lift such a ban.

Even the mere discussions about the potential development of nuclear weapons significantly raise the likelihood of American and Israeli strikes. These strikes could target facilities associated with Iran's nuclear and missile programs, as well as the country's leadership. In Israel, there is even a desire to use the situation as an opportunity to bring down the regime.

Within the US-Israel alliance, as American expert Mike Singh points out, there is a contradiction: each side expects the other to do the dirty work. However, while this delays the decision to launch strikes, it is clear that action is imminent. The clouds over Iran are growing darker.