West’s game against Lukashenko Kyiv and Belarusian opposition in play 

Information has appeared in the media that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Belarusian opposition “leader” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discussed the possibility of opening a criminal case against the President of Belarus. What could this mean for the already complicated relations between the two countries?

An act of hostility

The Ukrainian publication European Pravda was the first to report details of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, which took place in Vilnius on January 25. According to the outlet, the President of Ukraine and the so-called head of the “United Transitional Cabinet” discussed, among other things, the prospect of criminal prosecution of the President of Belarus.

Several experts primarily linked the emergence of this information to the resignation of Andriy Yermak from his post as Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. Yermak, it is claimed, had taken a relatively loyal position toward Belarus, believing that it was better not to irritate Alexander Lukashenko unnecessarily. However, can such hostile moves be explained solely by personnel changes in Zelenskyy’s inner circle?

Speaking in Davos on January 23, the President of Ukraine stated: "Belarus in 2020. Is the example. No one helped their people, and now Russian or ethnic missiles are deployed in Belarus, within range of most European capitals. That would not have happened if the Belarusian people had won in 2020. And, we have told our European partners multiple times, act now against those missiles in Belarus; missiles are never just decoration, but Europe still remains in Greenland mode. Maybe something, someone will do something…"

What could calls to “act now against those missiles” mean? Clearly, this is not about sanctions or similar measures, of which Belarus already faces more than enough. Such rhetoric is more likely perceived as urging Europe toward direct military action. But are the Europeans themselves ready for this?

Even more aggressive was Zelenskyy’s militant rhetoric in Vilnius at events marking the anniversary of the 1863 uprising, where he effectively called for a forceful Western intervention in Belarus’s political situation.

Meanwhile, some “analysts” from the Belarusian opposition try to portray the “historic meeting” between Zelenskyy and Tsikhanouskaya as the result of the latter’s active efforts, supposedly finally “getting through” to Kyiv. However, both the meeting itself and Zelenskyy’s tough statements in Davos and Vilnius were initiated by the Ukrainian side.

Until recently, all of this remained at the level of words — dangerous and indicative in terms of the sharp rise in negative attitudes toward Belarus. However, talk of initiating a criminal case against its president is no longer mere rhetoric; it is a concrete, practical act of hostility.

Against Trump’s peaceful approach?

All of this is happening against the backdrop of Minsk’s emerging exit from international isolation and the possible lifting of sanctions — a process made feasible through negotiations with John Coale, special envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump. The initiation of a criminal case against Alexander Lukashenko, especially if it involves recourse to international judicial bodies, could seriously complicate this process. The logical question arises: which forces are behind this latest attempt to torpedo the normalisation of relations with Belarus?

The publication European Pravda characterises Donald Trump’s peace initiatives as follows: "This significantly increases the risks for both democratic Belarus and Ukraine, which are better faced together. That is why, with the assistance of the Belarusian opposition, Ukraine could initiate proceedings to place Lukashenko on an international wanted list."

Belarusian political analyst Piotr Petrovsky believes that the “war party” in the West seeks to derail the negotiation process through escalation, including in relation to Belarus. “Minsk, as one of the communication channels between Washington and Moscow, is seen by the ‘war party’ as a natural target,” the expert notes.

Assuming that the war in Ukraine may in the foreseeable future end with a ceasefire or peace agreement, Belarus’s adversaries indeed have strong incentives to limit its participation in the peace process by any means.

First, Belarus’s peaceful but firm stance on defending its own sovereignty is traditionally perceived as a challenge by proponents of forceful and imperial approaches.

Second, the current armed conflict is taking place directly on Belarus’s borders and has already caused significant damage to the country. For this reason, Minsk from the outset, despite accusations of “co-aggression,” has advocated for an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and was the first to offer a venue for peace negotiations. In the event of a signed peace agreement, Belarus is objectively interested in ensuring its own national interests are taken into account.

As Petrovsky emphasises, the issue primarily concerns the reopening of the border with Ukraine, the restoration of transit to Black Sea ports, and the return of Belarusian property confiscated in Ukraine. This includes seized railcars, enterprises, fertilisers, and rolled metal products, with a total value of around one billion dollars. In this context, artificially and deliberately escalating relations with Belarus could serve as a tool to avoid returning illegally seized property.

At the same time, several Ukrainian public opinion leaders view Zelenskyy’s aggressive attacks on Lukashenko as a deliberate move to confront Donald Trump — an attempt to inflict political damage on him in the foreign policy arena. These assessments are linked to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November, where any complications for Trump’s team could be exploited by Democratic Party candidates, which Zelenskyy openly supported in the previous US presidential election.

Other reasons may also explain the recent provocative statements. In the event of a swift peace in Ukraine, destabilising the situation in Belarus will become significantly more difficult. In this context, “hawks” in the EU may attempt to accelerate the process of destabilisation while it is still possible to use the “Ukrainian case.” Competition among the countries of the “golden billion” has not disappeared, especially against the backdrop of their economic crisis and their loss to China in the global economic race.

It is noteworthy that European Pravda, the first to report on the possible initiation of a criminal case against Lukashenko, is funded by the Council of Europe, the European Endowment for Democracy, and NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division.

However, if necessary, such a political strategy could also be played against Belarus by the collective West as a whole.

On January 28, responding to a question from a BELTA correspondent about the reasons behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s sharp attacks on Alexander Lukashenko, Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada MP Artem Dmytruk stated that Zelenskyy allegedly discussed plans for offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against Belarus, aimed at escalating the conflict and derailing peace negotiations. At the same time, according to the MP, Kyiv lacks the necessary military-technical capabilities to carry out such scenarios.

"It would not surprise me at all if tomorrow, God forbid, a missile or drone flies into Belarusian territory — or, conversely, into Ukrainian territory — and it is claimed that it came from Belarus, to fuel escalation further," Dmytruk said.

Commenting on Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's demonstrative invitation to Kyiv, the MP sharply questioned her ability to propose any coherent strategic solution for Ukraine.

So far, Kyiv has not taken any practical steps to initiate a criminal case. It is possible that at this stage, this is merely an information leak intended to apply additional political pressure.

In Belarus itself, authorities are trying not to fall for these or other provocations. Commenting on media reports about the allegedly discussed criminal case, the press secretary of the President of Belarus, Natalia Eismont, stated: “This is news to us. We know nothing about such alleged discussions or intentions, and we are hardly concerned about it…”

Back in March 2025, Alexander Lukashenko said that Zelenskyy had been like a son to him, but had acted very badly…