Who declared a large-scale cyberwar on Azerbaijan? Caliber.Az analyzes

On February 20 morning, online resources belonging to the Global Media Group were hit by a massive hacker attack, resulting in disruptions to websites such as Report.Az, Oxu.Az, Media.Az, Baku.ws, and BakuTV. There were attempts to hack servers and control panels of these sites. Caliber.Az was also not exempt.

From the very first moments, specialists understood that this was not a classic DDoS attack, but a targeted attempt to "capture" the servers. Such operations go far beyond the capabilities of amateur hackers or "hacktivists" and suggest the involvement of highly skilled cyber specialists, possibly even employed by the intelligence agencies of some country. This raises two questions – which country, and what was the purpose behind it? Let's try to analyze.

If we look at the religious-themed images posted by the hackers on the main pages of some of the online resources they attacked, the first thought that comes to mind is that this could be the work of our southern neighbour, Iran. However, there are several significant "buts." First, why would Iran do this right now? And why on the very day when a delegation headed by Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Chairman of Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly, was in Baku? Ghalibaf is considered close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – not by chance, he led Tehran for many years before replacing Ali Larijani as the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Ghalibaf was received in Baku by President Ilham Aliyev. During the meeting, the Iranian guest emphasized that his country shares common interests with Azerbaijan in ensuring stability and security in the region.

In other words, Iran had no reason to declare a large-scale cyberwar on Azerbaijan at this particular time. By placing religious-themed images on the main pages of Azerbaijani websites, the attackers tried to convince us that Iran was behind the attack, while also attempting to cover their tracks.

If it’s not Iran, then who could it be? Armenia? We acknowledge that Armenia has a strong desire to "bring down" Azerbaijan's leading online media, but it lacks the necessary capabilities.

And here, we gradually approach two countries that have every reason to attempt to "revenge" Azerbaijan in such a manner. One of them is, of course, Russia, as it has more than enough "reasons." This could be a form of response, albeit in a peculiar way, but entirely in line with the current spirit of Russia. First, it might be retaliation for publications in Azerbaijani media aimed at countering Russia's attempts to shift the focus from the specific causes of the AZAL flight crash to abstract consequences. Second, it could relate to investigations by Azerbaijani journalists into the espionage activities of the Russian Information and Cultural Center "Russian House," as well as Baku’s decision to make certain adjustments to the operations of the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" outlet, which functions as a branch of the Russian state-owned media agency "Russia Today."

While Azerbaijan acted strictly within the framework of national legislation in this case, someone in one of the Kremlin's towers might have been displeased with this course of action, and thus we can assume that the FSB, SVR, or GRU might have been instructed to prepare a "counter" move. Especially since our northern neighbour has the necessary capabilities. Here's a recent example: According to an investigation by Bloomberg published on October 21, 2024, Russian hackers linked to the GRU and FSB had been monitoring Georgian government bodies and major companies for years, gathering information and interfering with vital infrastructure. The agency reported that the espionage campaign affected the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, other government agencies, the National Bank of Georgia, energy and telecommunications companies, oil terminals, and TV channels.

In other words, we would not rule out Russia from the list of countries suspected of launching a large-scale cyberattack on Azerbaijani media.

Nor would this be the case with France, which not only "deeply suffers" from the defeat of its "sister," but also literally grinds its teeth in frustration at Azerbaijan's anti-colonial policy. Indeed, in Paris, they seem unable to find peace because official Baku raises the issue of France's neo-colonial policies on every global platform and at various levels. And it's not just raising the issue—Azerbaijan supports France's overseas territories with all its resources in their just struggle for independence from Paris.

In this context, let’s recall President Aliyev's words: "We will support you as much as we can with all our resources until you are free. You and millions like you are free to live on your land, to plan your future, and to protect your heritage, your dignity, and your language, which they want to deprive you of. We will stand by you."

How could one not clench their fists in powerless anger, especially when Azerbaijan’s intelligence services delivered a crushing blow to the French spy network in the country just last year? And as we know, impotence breeds despair and anger, emotions under which the current occupant of the Élysée Palace might have ordered the DGSE to launch a large-scale cyberattack on Azerbaijan’s media.

However, we are confident that the specialists from Azerbaijan’s relevant agencies will uncover who declared this cyberwar on us. But no matter who or what is behind this cyber aggression, it will not break us or our colleagues, nor will it force us to retreat from our professional duty. On the contrary, it will only strengthen our resolve and commitment to our cause.